Since Hamas launched Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, the dominant, instant response by Israel’s allies has been unconditional support via this pre-agreed slogan:
Israel has the right to defend itself against this terrorism
and variations on that theme. As time has gone on, circumstances and political realities have forced increasing numbers of allies to append conditionality to that slogan, namely “in accordance with international and humanitarian law”.
Ursula Von Der Leyen, who makes grandiose claims to speak and act for the entire EU Bloc while acting like a head of state, has never included specific reference to international law in her tweets, although an EU Council statement referenced it on October 7th, and she said it on camera at some point in the first week.
Those who bothered to read Von Der Leyen’s tweet output above or on X may notice the repetitive, tight linguistic framing of events that deliberately limits options, actions, and perspectives. If you were a real, genuine diplomat, would you seek to keep things as open as possible, or would you seek to force perception and categorisation of matters into a small box as quickly as possible?
Von Der Leyen’s role and claims are not accepted by all in the EU. Clare Daly succinctly voiced objections.
The need to append “in accordance with international law” to the original slogan tells us something about Israel’s methods and us as people. Revenge prosecuted by nation state actors (not necessarily nation states) doesn’t have to conform to international law… unless… the world is looking, can see and actually do something. International law doesn’t work the way people think law works (see US drone strikes, assassination of Soleimani).
In the international domain, where there is no authoritative judiciary or legislature capable of rapidly clarifying the law, legality (or illegality) must still be inferred from the responses of other states.
The assertion that “Israel has the absolute right to defend herself” is not true in absolute terms or in international law. In absolute terms, rights are enhanced or impinged by one’s own force and bolstering or opposing forces, as well as circumstances. In international law, large amounts of conditionality bears down on claims to rights. As Russia’s UN Representative Dmitry Polyansky said in an X Space as this article was being written, Israel’s right to defence as an illegal occupier is highly questionable, and the majority of UN members do not support the assertion at face value. Within international law, that normative behaviour can still be overridden under the Rules Based Order i.e. asserted and invented Rules combined with the “might is right” approach is what tends to apply. For now.
For the time being, the world can still see into Gaza and is looking. That’s what the electricity and comms black out seeks to address even though that in itself is a war crime, alongside the deliberate attempt to starve and dehydrate everyone. In for a penny, in for a pound, right?
We believe that the “international community” actors that constitute Israel’s support base are bad “friends”. Too much historic wilful ignorance, unconditional support or silence has encouraged Israel to enter the Hamas trap and politically slit its own wrists, as we explained in our previous article, not that Israel needed much encouragement. There seems to be a superficial lack of measured judgement among the friends who rushed to spout an unconditional slogan (“right to defend herself”) that betrayed their inability to perform obvious and essential political calculus. Israel - a hot headed, angry and wronged nation - has not been consoled, calmed and wisely counselled by its good friends, before being guided into taking action grounded in political reality. Rather, its rage has been stoked and it’s been egged on by people dumb and disconnected enough to see only opportunities for themselves instead of a broader consideration of other parties’ realities and opportunities for peace and reconciliation. Unless, of course, that’s Israel’s friends’ game all along: they’ll let the raging beast do its thing in the hope that its actions achieve their political objectives at its expense.
The Business of War dominates Friend's of Israel's interests
The USA, EU & UK lazily rolled out the PNAC playbook that’s been in use since 9/11 and just switched out “Ukraine” for “Israel” and “Russia” for “Hamas”. “Unprovoked attack”, “right to self-defence” and all the other lazy tropes and slogans we’ve just sat through are being recycled “at the speed of war”. This entire methodology is so transparent, misguided and disingenuous that it is woeful. Is there anything different this time around?
Sort of.
Check a western newspaper for “war crime” or “genocide” and “Israel” and you get more results than Israel would like, starting from the day of the Al-Aqsa Flood attacks. Yes, Hamas is also guilty of war crimes and has employed terrorist action and tactics. But the trouble here is that the Western press is full of reports that point the finger at Israel’s response in no uncertain terms and the finger pointing isn’t stopping because Israeli crimes are increasing as a result of its ongoing scorched earth policy and practises.
The Norwegian Foreign Minister resigned in protest. The Spanish acting Social Rights Minister has requested Israel’s direct referral to the ICC. Colombia got in to a diplomatic spat with the Israeli ambassador regarding the situation in Gaza.
Pick through most of the major Western press and you will find multiple pieces that directly describe Israeli war crimes or quote others making those observations, even in the most captured outlets including the NYT, WaPo and too many others. It’s off the charts by anyone’s modern measure. This is worse than anything in the Ukraine war because it’s unambiguous and Israel laid all the groundwork and did all its own framing with its statements of intent and clear actions.
On the official stage, just three days after Al-Aqsa Flood launched, the United Nations said:
There is already clear evidence that war crimes may have been committed in the latest explosion of violence in Israel and Gaza, and all those who have violated international law and targeted civilians must be held accountable for their crimes.
Human Rights Watch said it verified videos taken in Lebanon on Oct. 10 and Gaza on Oct. 11 showing "multiple airbursts of artillery-fired white phosphorus over the Gaza City port and two rural locations along the Israel-Lebanon border".
(Jerusalem, October 19, 2023) – Hamas and Islamic Jihad are committing war crimes by holding scores of Israelis and others as hostages in Gaza, Human Rights Watch said today. No grievance can justify holding anyone hostage. The groups should immediately and safely release all civilians detained.
Taking hostages is prohibited under Common Article 3 to the 1949 Geneva Conventions, which applies to the armed conflict between Israel and Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other Palestinian armed groups, and article 34 of the Fourth Geneva Convention, which applies in occupied territories.
Palestinian armed group’s apparent deliberate targeting of civilians, indiscriminate attacks, and taking of civilians as hostages amount to war crimes under international humanitarian law. Israeli authorities’ cutting off electricity to Gaza and other punitive measures against Gaza’s civilian population would amount to unlawful collective punishment, which is a war crime. The laws of war apply to all parties to a conflict, irrespective of the lawfulness of their going to war or imbalances of power between the parties.
Note: the last article clearly neutralises Israel’s claims of “they did it first/they started it/we are defending ourselves” as justification for unalloyed slaughter. There’s no such justification or defence under the laws of war. This works both ways.
The laws of war make no formal distinction between parties to a conflict on the basis of power imbalances or other criteria. The fundamental principles of international humanitarian law still apply. Violating them by deliberately targeting civilians or carrying out indiscriminate attacks can never be justified by pointing to the injustice of the political situation or other political or moral arguments. To permit the targeting of civilians in circumstances in which there is a disparity of power between opposing forces, as is the case in many conflicts, would create an exception that would virtually negate the rules of war.
Outside of the media bubble, the public across the globe has come out in support of the Palestinian people on what can be described as a surprising and perhaps politically frightening scale.
German and French governments have been prompted to crack down on their people again, just as they did during COVID and after the Nahel shooting.
Here’s a glimpse of the pro-Palestinian protests from around the world.
This week Israel and the IDF engaged a multi-layered PR and marketing strategy to manage perception with a distinctly more professional and inorganic feel than the Palestinian side.
Bear in mind that Israel has set itself two impossible objectives:
Mass hostage rescue;
The total annihilation of Hamas, which encompasses the Palestinian people according to Isaac Herzog and some Israeli parliamentarians.
It has launched a “Bring Them Home” campaign, in whose shadow lurks the Hannibal Directive, which some suggest could result in the forfeiting or sacrifice of some or many hostages in pursuit of higher priorities. This remains to be seen and is unlikely to ever be admitted or known truthfully. The IDF will tell the world what it wants about contacts inside Gaza. There won’t be reliable witnesses from either side and the Israelis won’t leave Hamas personnel alive to tell tales. Hamas has released two hostages this week and attempted to release more today, but there are unconfirmed rumours that Israel refused to accept the latest releases.
The Israeli PR onslaught that projects hostage identities at people outside the nation is, frankly, bizarre. Hostage release comes down to two standard choices: negotiation or assault. No one but Hamas and Israel enter that equation unless a third party mediator is employed. Therefore, emblazoning hostage’s faces on vans, buses and building-size projections is exploitative and crude. What actual purpose does it serve other than to attack Hamas via psychological warfare waged on international bystanders? Hamas’ tactical decisions are not going to be swayed by notional international public opinion “expressed” in fake realities found in social media streams. Some realities and truths don’t change.
There is the same kind of venom displayed by Neftali Bennett and Isaac Herzog in Israel’s communications and marketing. Greta Thunberg has tried to capitalise on events for her personal gain and publicity, only for Israel to snap back with an acerbic tone around “sustainable materials” in Hamas rockets. This is childish, pointless, tasteless, hypocritical and divorced from the reality of the nature of weapons and warfare. If we want to get dragged down this path, war and weapons are the most toxic and environmentally damaging of mankind’s pursuits. Israel’s sarcastic observation of the lack of sustainability in Hamas’ arsenal can simply be met with “and what about yours?” It’s wrongheaded, ill judged and petty. Better to simply ignore Thunberg’s garbage and avoid attacking the pro-Palestinian side in this manner, because being pro-Palestine isn’t the same as being pro-Hamas, although the Israelis want the world to see them synonymously.
The IDF’s ongoing commentary via Jonathan Conricus is another key PR exercise that is imbued with the same edge and tone.
“Don’t tell us what to do and keep your judgements to yourself” should sound familiar.
The IDF doesn’t seem to employ subtlety or nuance in communications. Persuasion gives way to brute force and repetition akin to kicking in the doors of the audience’s perception. This latest CNN interview simply reinforces the most predictable and obvious, telegraphed shock and awe approach that Hamas must be expecting and also shuts off more peaceful options by setting out preconditions that Hamas can’t really agree to. It won’t just hand all hostages over and put down its weapons. The Israelis cannot be trusted and will still roll in to destroy Hamas because that is the objective it has publicly set itself (see Mission Impossible, below).
The IDF is now employing the exact same faulty framing as was employed in Ukraine.
Israel is not fighting for its very existence. It’s dealing with a prison break out that’s already almost back in a knackered box. The Lebanese border problem is a problem of its own making and a response to its excessive and disproportionate response, which has gone as far as two sets of strikes against Syria, whose involvement in Al-Aqsa Flood has not been proven or indicated. If anything, Israel is intending to fight over Hamas’ and even Palestine’s ongoing existence, at the risk of its own. It controls this escalation dynamic more than Hamas for the time being. It must know this and therefore makes conscious tactical and strategic choices, then markets them via Conricus and other media channels.
Netanyahu and the IDF have set two impossible and contradictory objectives.
We previously stated that the complete destruction of Hamas is impossible because Hamas has become an ideology of resistance to oppression and pain, just like every resistance movement throughout history. That doesn’t get bombed, shot, stabbed, gassed or lasered out of existence. Just ask the Irish. Netanyahu has created is own explicit forever war and has already begun setting expectations with declarations that it will take at least a year. It will also involve the razing of Gaza and probably parts of the West Bank, all of which implies massive civilian casualties. Again, this rhetoric based purely on the threat of extreme violence and mass killing is utterly predictable.
Mark Regev seeks to ram Israel’s asserted righteousness down the throat of anyone within range and simply doesn’t accept any perspective or question he doesn’t like. He uses whataboutism and literally deflects via “our actions are their fault” nonsense. He even actually says:
We are going to make a maximum effort to hit the Hamas machine without, without doing what we can to avoid civilian casualties.
Just as impossible is the goal of recovering all hostages using warfare techniques while making negotiations harder and harder through toxic public rhetoric. Look at what Israel is attempting to clear out: Gaza City.
At 45 km2 and with a population of at least 600k but likely closer to 1m, it is a CQB/FIBUAR nightmare. Compare that with an image of Bakhmut, which is apparently the same area but a fraction of the density with a population of just 71k, before it was largely evacuated to around 15k.
Fighting in Bakhmut cost each side circa 40k lives, with claims that the Ukrainians may have lost up to 60k lives, and took 5 months with no hostages involved. Israeli hostages could be anywhere above or below ground in Gaza City and could be used in all manner of subversive tactics.
Imagine, for a second, a take on the Joker’s final play in The Dark Knight; some hostages are placed in buildings, embedded among the remaining civilians around the city as a lure to draw in assault forces. If the hostages or their surroundings are booby trapped and surrounded by ambushes, what’s the counter? What if some hostages are tied to mobile phone signals that draw Israeli artillery or rocket strikes in? Hamas would score cruel PR blows as the Israelis erroneously killed their own people while thinking they were Hamas fighters. All Hamas needs to do is film the destruction and release the footage.
Gaza City is somewhat similar to Mogadishu, and look how well the USA fared there. The IDF took something of a beating in Jenin just a few months ago, and that’s a fraction of the size of Gaza City.
CQB and hostage rescue is a skillset outside of conscript infantry training. Scott Ritter is certain that it is largely beyond IDF troops, and they know it.
The Pattern of War
We believe that over the last two weeks, Israel has been forced to face the corner in which it has put itself, hence why its operations have yet to fully match its opening rhetoric and why it has now noticeably shifted tactics.
Its two impossible objectives serve as metrics of guaranteed failure. Against them, Israel has to find a way of spinning some kind of victory narrative, where the hostages are the near term metric and the destruction of Hamas is long term metric.
Its technological and distance attacks have so far been a bad show. Massive civilian casualties keep ticking the war crimes list. 22 hospitals are reported to have been tapped or told to clear out, while being unable to operate fully due to the siege. The disputed attack on Al-Ahli hospital has effectively exposed the brutality and obvious lies of Israel. Channel 4 and Al Jazeera have both determined the IDF story to be flawed or fake. One of the most obvious giveaways was the presentation of a convenient “intercepted phone call” that spelled things out for the thickest of eavesdroppers.
However, the hospital strike speaks to the nature of warfare in the theatre and again Ritter brings his experience to bear. He raises questions about what the attack might mean for both sides. The following article is essential reading as it pervades all fighting and operations in the theatre.
The truth about what happened at the Al-Ahli Hospital is still waiting to be told. The evidence needed to expose this truth exists on the grounds of the hospital, in the crater and the surrounding area, in the form of the rocket remnants that killed and wounded so many innocent Palestinian civilians. It is understandable why Israel would seek to obfuscate any details that linked the attack to it. Less so is why Hamas would do the same. One apparent reason is that the evidence that exists would validate the Israeli claim that the rocket in question was one fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad – Hamas would never want to admit this, having invested so much effort in sustaining the belief that Israel was behind the attack.
But why would Hamas suppress evidence that Israel did, in fact, conduct the strike on the hospital?
Three major issues fall out of the hospital attack’s subsequent treatment and presentation. First, no external or third party observer can know the truth. Even if you were in or around the strike, you would be hard pressed to piece together the elements that Ritter’s scenario would encompass. Second, there is the high likelihood that both sides are complicit in the net negative outcome by virtue of the way they are operating and fighting inside Gaza, including Hamas’ deliberate and forced use of human shield tactics, per our trap hypothesis. Third, the IDF has a hard job of countering the perception that it is operating excessively and illegally. Just how much unquestionably true evidence would it have to show audiences for all doubt to be removed and for it to be afforded full trust? It has a track record of killing civilians and journalists then lying, and it has clearly lied about the strike and therefore destroyed the basis for trust between it and anyone who doubted or disliked it. It won’t get those people back. Meanwhile, Hamas has made limited statements that are hard to directly verify due to its website being inaccessible due to a DNS block or similar.
The hospital massacre in the Gaza Strip is a crime of genocide.. The horrific massacre carried out by the Zionist occupation in the Gaza City’s Al-Ahly Hospital which left hundreds of casualties, most of them displaced families, patients, children and women, is a crime of genocide that once again reveals the ugly face of this criminal enemy and its fascist and terrorist government. This also exposes the American and Western support for this criminal occupation. The international community and the Arab and Islamic countries must assume their responsibilities and intervene immediately, now and not tomorrow... to stop the arrogance of the occupation and its fascist army, and hold it accountable for the genocide it has been committing for the eleventh day in a row in the already blockaded area.
Hamas (unverified) October 17, 2023
The story of the hospital strike took on an instant life of its own, with body count shooting to 500+ and huge amounts of footage purportedly depicting victims including babies and infants. Hamas did not need to say a single thing as the footage alone has the desired effect, even if it isn’t an accurate depiction of what happened. It only needs to trigger an emotional response. Accuracy and truth comes second.
Under these circumstances, Netanyahu has switched tactics.
A few days ago, Bibi shifted to the standard Western war pattern that we outlined in War drums beat to a pattern:
Acquire a pretext by:
letting events happen and spinning them; or
actually making them happen; or
lying about them (whether they have happened or not).
Magnify and polarize those lies and spin in the public sphere and weaponize them by any means possible, thereby creating a false legitimacy by using the press to repeat and reinforce that there is public need and even support for war.
Build a gang so you are not alone, then invade and kill ‘em all.
Make money on the upside and the downside.
Dressed in a black shirt, Bibi invoked the language of the post-9/11 era and claimed he was fighting “Nazis” on “an Axis of Evil”, then polarized the audience into a for or against stance, asked that everyone gang together on his side and fight for freedom and democracy. It was painting by numbers in blood.
This statement employs bombast, false categorisation of all Israeli casualties as civilians, grandiosity, threat, blackmail, fear induction, demands for joint venture and more.
Netanyahu already had a pretext to pursue his political objectives. He has been polarizing the audience since October 7th and does it again in even starker terms. But now he is actively building a gang from whoever he can convince to get blood on their hands or shirt. Why?
Because it is the joint venture shared amongst a gang, ideally with some UN veto power that will sufficiently legitimise and protect Bibi from full prosecution for war crimes already committed and to come. Provided that the US, UK and some European actors now pay for his war in cash or gear, and even commit troops (even to only Israeli territory) while still barking in favour of Israel’s rights to annihilate people, they will all become equally guilty. Then Bibi will be protected, as going after him will require going after the US et al, which will never happen.
Biden is now requesting massive joint funds for Israel and Ukraine, and the UK has made some sort of delivery of gear, cash or men via a Galaxy, as well as delivering Rishi Sunak into a misguided PR opportunity that will soon blow up in his face.
Biden’s visit to Israel may have sought to set some notional limits or stress the need for caution. However, Biden’s address was a disaster as he dementedly abandoned an off-script sentence then literally read off cue cards. Later, on Air Force One, he just sacked off a question about war crimes.
The EU rolled in Von Der Leyen and then Meloni.
What you are looking at here is, in our opinion, the Curse of Netanyahu. He’s dressed in black for a reason: his administration is the abyss - a black hole that will suck in fools, life, and truth.
The distinction between public and political support
We envisage that the apparent dichotomy between what could be labelled notional public support for Israel or Palestine, and political support for either will remain at loggerheads throughout the conflict as it grows and morphs, where political support encompasses military and legal support as well. Most recent conflicts have been initiated and continued for political reasons, not actual public demand/support, which is something notionally created and tacked on after the fact like sprinkles on a cup cake.
It would appear that people in Brussels don’t agree with Von Der Leyen.
The longer, historical conflict is literally riddled with war crimes on both sides to the point that Human Rights Watch points out that no side pays attention to international law at all and no one is ever or can be prosecuted, so war crimes and humanitarian rights violations are normative behaviour. Just look up the acts of Israel and its agents, including the phenomenon of “Jewish terrorism” and think again about how much blood is on how many hands. Ask yourself exactly what is involved in being a “Settler”. On the list is theft and possibly murder. Under such conditions, neither the Israelis nor Hamas will stop because they hit their limits. History shows us that neither side has clear limits. Worse still, no part of the hydra that is the US hegemon has limits.
The USA has done every single nasty act to human beings throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, including global medical experimentation, before you start to consider COVID. Britain and the EU nations are no different throughout their histories.
The Israeli political class wants the public to sanction and bless a Dresden firebombing 2.0 in Gaza and have invoked it in co-ordinated narrative.
Ehud Barak doesn’t want to remind you of history then reminds you of history, and starts creating hypotheticals. Britain sent troops abroad to kill people in illegal wars under false pretexts for the business of war. The 7/7 bombings killed 52 and injured circa 700 and Britain has been involved in the “War on Terror” since 9/11, so Barak is simply pulling on political heart strings that have always been riddled with disease.
The PR approach of Tzipi Hotovely, Israeli ambassador to the UK, again reflects Israel’s ham-fisted brutality. She denies any humanitarian crisis exists, states that Hamas is responsible for all of Israel’s actions in Palestinian territory then switches to false equivalency and hypotheticals, and tries to buff up the IDF’s operations.
Then she invokes Dresden. The entire PR strategy is utterly crass and smacks of manipulative, deliberately narrowed and skewed victim narrative that tries to cast off notions of responsibility and joint venture, both of which are historical facts.
Dresden
Gaza after less than a week if IDF onslaught
In the face of significant public opposition to Israel and Netanyahu, the Israeli power architecture is using polarization, projection and predictive programming to condition expectations and plant seeds of legitimacy in reference to the past crimes of others. This is mentally akin to building a gang and getting bloody together.
It’s all about inducing silence and suppressing dissent via shared or previous guilt.
The public is poorly educated, naïve and mentally weak, but more naturally moral. Even if the public can be easily pushed and tricked into picking a side, many “dumb” people can retain a basic sense of morality. As we look into the political class, that morality evaporates. That’s a key difference that manifests in the public constantly wondering how things can be so messed up, corrupt, nonsensical and bloody.
Netanyahu demonstrated our previous observation that Israel under his administration acts like a mini USA, when he called for sanctions against the ICC in the style of the USA:
January 2020
Netanyahu calls for sanctions over ICC war crimes investigation
Israeli PM condemns ‘travesty’ after court said it intended to look at alleged incidents
Benjamin Netanyahu has called for sanctions against the international criminal court and people who work for it, a month after its chief prosecutor announced she intended to investigate alleged Israeli war crimes.
“I think that everybody should rise up against this,” the Israeli prime minister said in an interview with Trinity Broadcasting Network, the world’s largest Christian television network.
“The US government under President Trump has spoken forcefully against the ICC for this travesty, and I urge all your viewers to do the same. To ask for concrete actions, sanctions, against the international court – its officials, its prosecutors, everyone.”
Netanyahu’s calls come months after Washington used a similar tactic to block a separate potential ICC investigation into its troops’ conduct in Afghanistan. It announced in March that it would deny entry to ICC officials, and later revoked a visa held by the ICC chief prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda.
ICC judges later refused to open the investigation, citing a lack of cooperation from parties involved, including Afghan authorities and the Taliban, but also the US.
The political reality that we must face is this: the rules of war exist on paper but not in practise. Almost no one is ever held accountable under international law for war crimes or genocide, especially rich or powerful nations in the US hegemon. Worst of all, the USA simply does not actually subscribe to the rules of war and its entire history of war through the 20th and 21st century comprises a massive litany of unprosecuted but partially proven and admitted war crimes. Under these hypocritical conditions and leadership, public outrage at the atrocities in this immediate conflict is the preserve of the victims and their families and loved ones, and the spectating public.
Amongst those who play realpolitik, no one gives a shit past their mouth music. They all know and understand the political, military and legal realities - might, cunning and time are right when it comes to protracted (and asymmetric) armed conflict. Literally all’s fair in love and war at the nation state level, especially when your opponent’s actions give you a pretext or an equivalency argument to justify your own mass atrocities. If you are powerful enough to bomb The Hague, you don’t need to give a shit.
U.S.: 'Hague Invasion Act' Becomes Law
A new law supposedly protecting U.S. servicemembers from the International Criminal Court shows that the Bush administration will stop at nothing in its campaign against the court. U.S. President George Bush today signed into law the American Servicemembers Protection Act of 2002, which is intended to intimidate countries that ratify the treaty for the International Criminal Court (ICC). The new law authorizes the use of military force to liberate any American or citizen of a U.S.-allied country being held by the court, which is located in The Hague. This provision, dubbed the "Hague invasion clause," has caused a strong reaction from U.S. allies around the world, particularly in the Netherlands. In addition, the law provides for the withdrawal of U.S. military assistance from countries ratifying the ICC treaty, and restricts U.S. participation in United Nations peacekeeping unless the United States obtains immunity from prosecution. At the same time, these provisions can be waived by the president on "national interest" grounds.
But how does this brutally cynical view of mankind and specifically those who rule sit inside VST’s prediction of the near term view of the war? In some ways, we are saying that if Bibi is a psycho who cannot be held to account and he knows it, with the backing of the USA he’s got nothing to worry about and that means his ongoing decimation of Gaza is guaranteed. That’s a part of our view, but not all of it.
In the UK right now, a YouGov poll shows 76% of those surveyed think there should be a ceasefire.
There won’t be one.
The politics won’t change until the military reality is tested
Israel’s final descent into madness might be what has to happen for the human race to break the cycles and patterns that have gripped the region for the last 75 years. Mankind has to go through a pain barrier to break a faulty paradigm that is partly born out of the sponsorship of corrupt abusers, and prior mass abuse.
The nation state of Israel, it could be argued, is the adopted child of the USA and Britain, both of whom are sneaky, abusive, violent parents now steaming into the Mediterranean for ringside seats at their child’s latest cage fighting competition. That child was abused by Nazi Germany.
Is it any surprise that their child is of the same, brutal and violent nature?
Here is a glimpse of the world these parents created.
We argue that the time has come for the gloves and masks to be cast aside. Ukraine was Russia defending its red line and calling out the West. It has radically changed the state of global affairs and exposed the soft underbelly of a dying empire. That battle has replaced strategic ambiguity with political and military certainties.
So too will this horrendous, murderous cage fight. Netanyahu claims that he intends to change the region forever and we believe that he will, but in ways he doesn’t fully envisage, such is his hubris and warped view of humanity, politics, religion and power.
If this fight does not fully play out, this regional problem will remain within the same loop and continue to spin as it always has done. The IDF should be left to put its money where its mouth is and show the world the extremes to which it will go, the things that it will say to excuse itself, its true thirst for blood and just exactly how it can fare against its immediate enemies.
Hamas has calculated that the cost of this fight includes mass civilian casualties in order to unleash an Israeli PR nightmare that is only just beginning. This cost will be worse for the IDF than for Hamas. Both sides are willing to burn the Palestinian people to achieve their political objectives.
The risk for participants and bystanders alike is just as Nietzsche said:
“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”
Friedrich Nietzsche
Unfortunately, it’s too late for Israel’s government and for Hamas. They are both monsters fighting in the abyss while we watch and risk our humanity in the process.
Bibi - the sacrificial lamb
We suspect that while Israel is not a controlled proxy, political calculus is in play to make him a sacrificial lamb.
It is likely that Bibi has been too politically extreme for some time and the administration he is now embedded amongst is the most racist, Zionistic and fanatical in recent Israeli history. Because the West is so heavily allied to, penetrated and influenced by the Israeli lobby, it’s impossible to cut off Bibi publicly.
However, he and this administration are being abandoned by many of their own people and are using the pattern of war to drown out the cries of their alienated and disenfranchised populace who do not share their psychosis.
That reporter’s framing is deliberately restrictive. Tension runs wider in Israel than that. Bibi is acknowledged to be a criminal and the near and far history with Hamas is complex. Bibi used it as a means to divide and conquer Palestine and its politics until it turned on him in the same way that Israel has twisted the world for its own ends.
Bibi’s response to Al-Aqsa Flood has shown everyone that he is willing to step on to the plank. What his friends are doing now is encouraging him to go further out.
“We’ve got you, Bibi. We’ve got the other end of the rope. If you don’t like it, just shout and we’ll pull you in.”
Rope can snap. A loop around one’s waist can become a noose around one’s neck.
The Friend’s of Israel say they share common cause with Bibi. What they don’t tell you is that they also might share common cause with Hamas. If Bibi goes, the Friends get a chance to influence his replacement. If he survives, they use him to re-engineer the region and gamble on moving Israeli-Palestinian and wider ethnopolitics out of the rut. In both cases, money will be made by the war machine and each Friend gains greater control over their own populace via new political pretexts and fear narratives. This war is increasing totalitarianism across the West. Look at the policies in Europe, the UK and the USA. There is another wave of censorship crackdown.
The question is just exactly how much blood the Friends are prepared to get on themselves before they start to back away and loosen their grip on Bibi’s rope.
Bibi is in two corners: the domestic mess he created and is trying to escape from using war; the war he is creating. When people are in a corner, they become increasingly desperate and will do irrational things while becoming increasingly vulnerable to exploitation. That means there’s a lot of room for the crazies.
Compare journalist Israel Frey with that of Tally Gotliv, a member of the Likud Party.
Gotliv’s rants and clear lack of any sense of political, military or humanitarian strategy or tact could have come straight out of the heart of blitzkrieg propaganda. Imagine if she was actually in control. Not only would there be even worse genocide, but there would be even less ability to perform any battlefield due diligence. Gotliev’s own words betray just how utterly stupid human beings can be. She has no idea of being baited, lured and trapped. She even believes that Israel can and should act completely unilaterally against enemies who will annihilate Israel. Soon, she will beg for Urkaine-scale foreign intervention. Somewhere in her tweets she even called for the use of nukes. She may have deleted it or we haven’t trawled back far enough.
Make no mistake, there are crazies and fanatics in the Knesset. They are involved in more than just shouting about how hard to kill Palestinians.
Since we published our take on the conflict and outlined our independent strategic view on October 12, Scott Ritter has increasingly formed his view. It happens to almost fully overlap with ours. He first mentioned the Hamas trap on October 13, Ask the Inspector Episode 106:
Since then, he has further expounded a widening view and has practically confirmed our thinking on the military and political angles.
We highly recommend this interview where he provides great historical and analytical detail that draws on his wide experience and knowledge and covers events up to the middle of this week.
Now take what Ritter says here and compare it to any other mainstream commentator. Most cannot deal in this level of detail, complexity and integration. This is why no one will let Ritter anywhere near the mainstream and they won’t go head-to-head with him.
Escalation is guaranteed. It may be the necessary medicine
We believe that Israel is in a bomb crater of its own making and it is still choosing to dig while roping in others to help and blaming everyone else for the size of the hole.
What this means is, like we said in all of our recent articles on this event, escalation, worsening violence, increased body count and widening war is guaranteed.
We think it’s necessary medicine in order for this political loop to be broken by way of a forced reframing of reality. Either Israel and Friends will hammer the region and then pick over bones and ashes as others look on in horror or glee (depending upon their bent), or it will be exposed like Zelensky and Ukraine, and the Friends will reposition and draw knives as the region’s political realities swing in favour of Arabic and Muslim nations.
As sad as it sounds, we think Bibi & Co are psychotic, cornered and deluded with notions of their own grandiose, messianic righteousness and that will carry them into a battle that they cannot win in totality. Even if Bibi realises this, there is a chance he will choose to burn out and claim he is a martyr for both the Jewish people and the Zionist cause, even though they are not the same thing at all. If he faces judgement, that martyr narrative will form his defence, akin to Tony Blair’s lies but on zealot-flavoured crack.
Inside the Palestinian battleground, Israel is already struggling to control the narrative despite a total siege and attempt to induce information blackout. The very nature of its tone and spin is harsh, brutal, inhumane and unfeeling. It is completely embroiled in its own pain, consumed by anger and hatred, and everything is everyone else’s fault. It has justified the worst of everything to itself and it wants you to be involved alongside to provide it with cover, give it your attention and monopolise your empathy.
This is characteristic of narcissism. Narcissists never really have true friends, only people they transact with and control for their own ends.
What you are watching in real time is the abuse cycle coming full circle at a national scale, and it is fulminating in the heart of Palestine. The abused has become the abuser and it wants to hurt or manipulate everyone and everything, in exactly the same way it was hurt all those years ago.
This is woefully predictable. Hamas understands this psychology and has expertly gamed Israel’s government by exploiting its psychosocial weaknesses that it expressed in political and military doctrine. All Hamas needs to do is survive, keep information, images, videos and pain flowing out of the theatre by drone footage, internet hard line, satellite link or people on donkeys, and the PR war will be effectively waged. It will break the West and stiffen backs across the Muslim world.
Israel has built concentration camps for “others” and now it smashes a prison break committee by killing everyone in the camp as a lesson to everyone else. Only psychopathic idiots would create such a place then send their sons and daughters into it to clean up the mess they made.
Human history runs in loops and cycles. As the end of empire nears, those loops and cycles run tighter and tighter.
What we need to see next is whether Hamas can compete at close range with guns and knives and fists, and whether Hamas has true friends who will bloody their hands.
The joint statement from the Organisation of Islamic Co-operation may soon be tested. We think that there is a critical clue buried in it that is being suppressed in the West and could become critical very soon.
Final Communiqué of the extraordinary open-ended meeting of the OIC Executive Committee at the level of Foreign Ministers on the brutal Israeli military aggression against the Palestinian people
Date: 18/10/2023
The Executive Committee of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, in its extraordinary open-ended meeting held at the level of foreign ministers on Wednesday, 3 Rabi’ al-Thani 1445, corresponding to 18 October 2023, upon the joint invitation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Chair of the current session of the Islamic Summit and Chair of the Executive Committee, and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, to discuss the ongoing Israeli military aggression against the Palestinian people, Recalling the principles and objectives contained in the Charter of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Emphasizing all resolutions issued by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation regarding the issue of Palestine and the City of Al-Quds Al-Sharif, Reaffirming its emphasis on the centrality of the Palestinian issue for the entire Islamic Ummah; Supporting the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people, most notably their right to self-determination and the return of Palestinian refugees, their right to independence, and the embodiment of the independent and sovereign State of Palestine on the borders of June 4th, 1967, with its capital, Al-Quds Al-Sharif, As well as his legitimate right to self-defense to confront the Israeli aggression that targets their lives, their sanctities, and their properties.
In light of the blatant and unprecedented Israeli aggression in the occupied Palestinian territory and the heinous massacres perpetrated against civilians in Gaza Strip by the Israeli occupation forces, which led to hundreds of innocent civilian casualties, thousands of injuries, and the displacement of hundreds of thousands through the demolition of their homes,
1. Calls for the immediate cessation of the barbaric aggression of the Israeli occupation forces against the Palestinian people and the immediate lifting of the siege imposed to the Gaza Strip; Reaffirms its strong condemnation of the unprecedented aggression against civilians in the besieged Gaza Strip and the entire occupied Palestinian territory by killing, bombing, deliberately destroying infrastructure, threatening to commit atrocities and to exterminate them, as well as the absolute rejection of targeting civilians under any pretext or displacing them from their homes, or starving and depriving them of safe access to humanitarian aid in contravention of all international norms and laws, and of the most basic humanitarian principles and values;
2. Calls upon all countries to quickly provide humanitarian, medical and relief aid, water and electricity, and to open humanitarian corridors immediately in order to safely deliver urgent aid to the Gaza Strip, including through the United Nations institutions particularly the United Nations Relief and Work Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) and support its efforts in this regard; Warns of the danger of continuing the policy of deliberate targeting of civilians and collective punishment accompanied by policies of starvation, water deprivation, and the stopping of the only power generation station in Gaza Strip suspended due to the prevention of fuel access, portending a real disaster for all health and humanitarian services, in contravention of international humanitarian law and amounting to the commission of international crimes, including the crime against humanity.
3. Strongly condemns the blatant targeting by Israel's brutal occupation forces of Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza Strip, which killed and injured hundreds of innocent sick, injured and displaced innocent civilians, which represents a war crime, extermination and a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law, ethics and international and humanitarian instruments, Calls upon the international community to act swiftly and to hold the Israeli occupation accountable for these heinous war crimes against the Palestinian people and humanity as at large, and calls for immediate intervention to halt this massacre;
4. Israel, the occupying power, bears full responsibility for the fate of civilians in the Gaza Strip and the real tragedy they are subjected to under bombardment, siege, and starvation, without electricity, food, or clean water, while being forced to abandon their homes, and for the policy of indiscriminate collective punishment that it applies in a flagrant violation of international law and international humanitarian law, as well as its legal responsibilities as the occupying power in accordance with the Geneva Conventions;
5. Stresses the importance of preserving the lives of all civilians, and not targeting them in any way being inconsistent with international law and international humanitarian law, as well as divine laws.
6. Rejects categorically calls to displace the population of Gaza Strip and affirms its support for the steadfastness of the Palestinian people on their land; Stresses the importance for the international community to play its role in preventing any attempt of forced displacement of the Palestinian population from their land, transferring the crisis to the neighboring countries and exacerbating issue of Palestinian refugees whom right to compensation and return must be met with in the framework of a comprehensive solution to the conflict that addresses the final status issues in conformity with the pertinent UN resolutions and the Arab Peace Initiative; stopping the military escalation, lifting the siege on the Gaza Strip, and contributing urgently to the entry of relief and humanitarian aid for civilians;
7. Expresses its strong regret and condemnation of the failure of the United Nations Security Council and its inability to discharge its responsibilities by taking a decisive decision to halt the war crimes carried out by the Israeli occupying forces against the Palestinian people in Gaza Strip and all Palestinian territory, which negatively affect the Security Council's role in maintaining international peace and security and protecting unarmed civilians;
8. Calls upon the United Nations and the UN Security Council to assume its responsibilities, to take all urgent measures to ensure an end to the brutal and barbaric aggression against the Palestinian people, particularly in the Gaza Strip and the entire Palestinian territory, to allow the entry of humanitarian aid, to provide protection for defenseless Palestinian civilians, and to stop the escalating humanitarian catastrophe carried out by the forces of the illegal Israeli occupation;
9. Warns of the escalation of attacks by the Israeli occupation army and settler terrorism weaponed and protected by the occupation forces in Al-Quds Al-Sharif and the West Bank in their continuing aggression against the civilian population and their properties, including killing, destroying, displacing, building and expanding settlements, within the framework of its brutal colonial campaign aimed at annexing the occupied Palestinian territory and affirms the importance of preserving sanctity of holy sites in Al-Quds, and the full protection of Al-Aqsa Mosque as well as the prevention of the violation of the status and sanctity of sacred places in Al-Quds;
10. Stresses the support of the Government of the State of Palestine at all levels, including the political, economic and financial levels, as well as its international and legal endeavors, to halt the heinous crimes, including the crime of genocide against the Palestinian people; National Authority those perpetrated by the Israeli occupation authorities;
11. Deplores the international positions that back the brutal aggression against the Palestinian people, and grant Israel impunity, taking advantage of the double standards that provide cover for the occupying power and fuel the conflict, which will only lead to increased violence and destruction, and seek to punish the Palestinian people, including cutting off humanitarian aid to them;
12. Reaffirms that peace, security and stability in the region will not be achieved without putting an end to the Israeli colonial occupation and its oppressive practices against the Palestinian people and by empowering the Palestinian people with their inalienable rights, particularly their right to self-determination, independence and return, on the basis of the international law and the resolutions of international legitimacy;
13. Calls upon international actors to engage in sponsoring a serious political path to achieve peace based on ending the illegal Israeli occupation that had begun in 1967 and implementing the two-state solution, within a clear time frame, as stipulated in the rules of international law and United Nations resolutions, and referring to the Peace process and the Arab Peace Initiative;
14. Calls upon the missions of the member States of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in the capitals and international organizations to take immediate action to convey the OIC’s position to the capitals of the countries and organizations to which they are accredited and to work with the necessary speed up their endeavours towards condemning and stopping the aggression, and ensuring the provision of the necessary humanitarian supplies to the Palestinian people;
15. Calls on Member states to apply all feasible and effective diplomatic, legal and deterrent measures, to stop the occupying power Israel's crimes against humanity.
16. Calls for an Extraordinary CFM meeting at the GS Headquarters to discuss the ongoing crimes of Israel against the Palestinian people.
17. Request the Secretary-General to identify the possible set of effective and concrete measures as soon as possible and present it to the next Extraordinary CFM meeting.
18. Stresses the need to provide international protection for the Palestinian people, in conformity with international humanitarian law standards as has been repeatedly advocated by the United Nations General Assembly, including in resolution ES-10/20 of 13 June 2018 and in line with the Final Communique of the 7th Extraordinary Islamic Summit, by dispatching an international protection force to protect innocent lives from ongoing attacks by the occupation forces and the extremist colonialist settlers ;
19. Assigns the Secretary General of the Organization to communicate with the five permanent members of the Security Council / the Secretary-General of the United Nations / the High Commissioner for Human Rights / the President of the European Union, and to continue coordination with regional and international organizations, including the League of Arab States, the Gulf Cooperation Council, the African Union and the Non-Aligned Movement in order to take the necessary steps aiming to compel Israel to stop all its violations, attacks and crimes and to work to provide international protection for the Palestinian people;
20. Mandates the Secretary-General to follow up on the implementation of the present final communiqué and to report thereon to the next meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers.
Another big post, much admired but with the caveat that I never followed each link e.g., fuck watching CNN. I'm too tired to keep pointing out the obvious propaganda. I could imagine a cartoon wherein Von der Leyen is part of the Red Cow Cult - https://mikehampton.substack.com/p/red-cow-god-war-middle-east-al-aqsa
Where did you go? I miss reading your thoughts and analysis.
Another big post, much admired but with the caveat that I never followed each link e.g., fuck watching CNN. I'm too tired to keep pointing out the obvious propaganda. I could imagine a cartoon wherein Von der Leyen is part of the Red Cow Cult - https://mikehampton.substack.com/p/red-cow-god-war-middle-east-al-aqsa