Cognitive Warfare: Cruz vs Carlson

Journeying through dramatic conflict

“[Cognitive Warfare] operates on a global stage, since humankind as a whole is now digitally connected. It uses information technology and the tools, machines, networks and systems that come with it.

Its target is clear: our intelligence, to be considered both individually and as a group.”

The Cognitive Warfare Concept

Bernard Claverie, François du Cluzel

OBJECTIVE

Generate sympathy/demand for/tolerance of current & escalatory anti-Iranian action

TASKS

1. Float/foreground/remind of justificatory "murder Trump" causal chain including arrests & intel

2. Remind people: “assassinate/murder Trump” is old, public, myriad. Once was bad enough, twice was terrible. But there's been more, or have you just forgotten?

3. Implant psychological payload

4. Expand Overton window

5. Diminish/eradicate emotional objections to the most extreme possible outcome ahead of time (nuclear weapons release)

METHOD

“Combative” head-to-head interview (“real journalism”) where:

• genuine “America First” agenda gets reinvigorated and pushed back on Cruz - failing to live up to those values - by Carlson

• a seemingly captured, extremist and unreasonable pro-Israeli, pro-Iranian regime change Senatorial agenda is exposed! Ted Cruz's theocratic, subservient and evasive rhetoric/claims slam into the incisive, mature journalistic legend, Carlson

• recalibration occurs through:

  • Cruz being confronted with then humiliated by his ignorance about Iran, the place he wants to initiate regime change

  • Carlson then admitting to huge ignorance of what Cruz knows about Iran and has been in the public sphere for two or more years, that directly explains Cruz's views and actions

  • Cruz floats “actual” facts that tune self-admittedly ignorant Tucker Carlson (“I don't know about any… I've never heard any… of this”) into the active assassination plots against US Gov by Iran (sources¹²)

• Ignorant, incredulous Carlson himself states that those acts are the highest order of crime and strongest act of war anyone, anywhere could level at the USA

• “reasonable and sceptical” anti-war Tucker Carlson switches into momentary, rabid fire-and-brimstone vengeance mode in response to these previously reported, known, acted on and thwarted IRGC actions (according to US Gov/DoJ sources and actions)

• the demand to “nuke Tehran… do anything it takes!” gets explicitly aired and normalized as obvious, self-evident, logically, naturally justified and reasonable if:

  • Cruz's claims are real

  • There's real threat & risk to Trump

RESULT

• Moves viewer vicariously though a simultaneously emotional and logical journey

• Reverses Cruz and Carlson's positions, forcing them through an equilibrium point of shared concern and total agreement (Iran must be attacked because it is attacking us) on the most timely and the most currently consequential event in present times (nuclear war with Iran)

• Uses Cruz-Carlson metamorphosis journey to expand viewers’ tolerance for full scope of threat-response-method tools currently active and possibly deployable in the Middle East theatre, including rationalizing and equalizing nuking Tehran.

• Viewers moved around an envelope of:

  • “Carlson is sensible, humble, humane, rational, analytical, emotionally and intellectually honest and so therefore I am too because I mostly side with him”;

  • Cruz being shown up by Carlson as a theocratic, lying, manipulative, Israeli-captured “sleazy, feline”, evasive politician who:

    • Is losing the plot because he's paid to do as he's told by a foreign government he professes to maximally support;

    • takes money from AIPAC, possibly putting Israel's interests ahead of the interests of his own nation and people, having claimed he's “America First”;

  • “But now I see where Iran might be worse than I realised”;

  • “Cruz wasn't lying about the Iranian actions” (arrests made, cases in motion, intel acquired & published);

  • Another Trump assassination attempt, by a state, would and should reasonably justify a nuclear attack on that state. That's not unreasonable because the reasonableTucker said so;

  • But “Crazy Tel Aviv Ted Cruz” demonstrates that he's still an adult because even knowing what he knows that Tucker didn't, he still has restraint regarding mode, method, surety, timing and parties involved. He's still weighing distance, deniability, blowback, costs, net risk;

  • “Now I see that some things aren't quite as straightforward as I thought, be that no nukes, no wars or just annihilate anyone whenever we can and put Israel first while doing it.

• Expands the Overton window on Iran and rearranges the view on cause, effect and justification to blend Cruz and Carlson's seemingly at-odds positions into logical and potentially justifiable co-existence and rational inter-relation;

• Creates space for the viewer to look into, consider and then process Cruz's claims and his reticence to act as extremely as Carlson claims he would and Cruz should.

“Calculated conditionality” appears rational

Calculated conditionality has been deliberately illustrated to achieve the Objective.

Tucker Carlson: …If there's evidence Iran paid hitmen to murder Donald Trump and is currently doing that… why are we not at war with Iran?

Ted Cruz: That's a great question… [lists reported “truth”]

Tucker Carlson: We should attack Iran immediately if that's true.

Ted Cruz: No…

Tucker Carlson: If they're trying to assassinate our President?

Ted Cruz: They have been for two years.

Tucker Carlson: THEN WHY AREN'T WE AT WAR WITH THEM? WHY DON'T WE JUST NUKE TEHRAN IF THEY'RE TRYING TO MURDER OUR PRESIDENT?! THERE'S NOTHING THAT YOU COULD DO THAT WOULD BE WORSE FOR THE UNITED STATES THAN MURDERING TRUMP. I JUST DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY YOU'RE NOT CALLING FOR THE USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS AGAINST THE AYATOLLAH RIGHT NOW. I'M SERIOUS! IF YOU REALLY BELIEVE THEY'RE TRYING TO MURDER OUR…

Ted Cruz: The use of nuclear weapons…

Tucker Carlson: WHATEVER IT TAKES!”

Carlson’s rhetorical strategy exemplifies how conditional statements, when deployed tactically, become tools of both logical entrapment and political exposure. The underlying rationality is not moral or strategic; it is discursive and instrumental, designed to test the coherence and consequences of Ted Cruz's claims.

Carlson doesn’t believe what he says. Carlson believes Cruz doesn't believe what he says.

Right?

When “Calculated conditionality” isn't what it appears to be

Everything Cruz was claiming about the threats against the USA are completely documented and factual (as far as anti-Iranian statements, actions and charges made/brought by the US Government go) and have been in the public sphere for at least two years (see footnotes for sources).

Earlier in the interview, Carlson attacked Cruz's credibility for being a 15-year Iran perma-hawk while not knowing any basic demographics/info about Iran.

Carlson explicitly, literally abandoned the self belief that he's “right” on matters but pushes that he's totally honest, as a virtue that transcends Cruz. This is an egregious, self-administered virtue signal through learned and earned, reflective humility (“I pushed the Iraq war and I was wrong and ashamed”) that covertly makes siding with Carlson's entire position (wherever it ends up) natural, virtuous and the ultimate form of intellectual honesty.

Carlson claims he is a journalist but admitted total ignorance of what Cruz was raising as these documented IRGC threats against the USA.

This is a professional shortcoming equivalent to being a war hawk politician who doesn't know the population and demographics of Iran, despite demanding regime change there.

Carlson's credibility as a serious journalist who harbours credible doubt and concerns over war in general and specifically war with Iran - nuclear or conventional - can now be called into doubt given that he is totally unaware of what he admits is crucial, critical, escalatory information about IRGC assassination plots and efforts.

If he had known about that information prior, he could have expressly and clearly labelled it either false or true, rather than stopping at “if you believe it's true” that advances conditional logic to nuke Tehran.

Carlson’s performance is a strategic misrepresentation of reality, facilitated by rhetorical bluster. What initially appears to be a rational interrogation collapses under scrutiny, revealing:

• A refusal to engage with empiricism in preparation for the interview (“what do I need to know about Iran's actions?”);

• A populist spectacle masking strategy;

• An instrumentalization of conditional logic to force open the Overton window and rationalise, legitimize and support the notion of “nuking Tehran”;

• Reversal or inversion: Carlson is now the uninformed party who is acting extremely but is justified provided that Cruz's claims are true (calculated conditionality now actually exceeds the superficial/ostensible performative boundary to serve the true covert, cognitive warfare Objective).

The phrase “calculated conditionality appears rational” is called into question.

In this case, calculated conditionality is simulated.

But the logical challenge dressed in hollow, calculated conditionality to Cruz still stands:

“If you believed your claims you'd call for war with Iran and nuke Tehran”

Cruz technically did call for that at the beginning of the interview in different, political language:

1. Regime change in Iran;

2. By any means that can be politically determined acceptable, workable or justified;

3. Conducted through any appropriate party/interface including Israel;

4. At an acceptable TOTAL cost not limited to $3bn a year in direct financing to Israel.

Carlson and Cruz cross over, agree with each other while engaged in performative combat, and reinforce the overall objective from two different directions:

War with Iran is justified.

Means, mode, method and cost are always up for debate in the political world of adult operators.

METRICS

Over 61M X impressions of the video on Carlson's official Twitter page in less than 24 hours.

Unknown extra impressions of stolen & syndicated clips spread across a 550m+ X user base (likely the fastest and most shared video clips since release 24 hours ago).

Unknown number of video views at Tucker Carlson.com

TIMING

Airs just ahead of the weekend preceding two key points:

• Rumoured increasing, possibly unprecedented Iranian strikes against Israel that could expose Israel's military stress in ways that are undeniable;

• The rumoured entry of the USA into the war on Monday, as the only participant with the only weapons capable of hitting the underground Iranian nuclear facilities, which are the number one physical target.

Seymour Hersh reports anticipated entry of the US on Monday

This is a report on what is most likely to happen in Iran, as early as this weekend, according to Israeli insiders and American officials I’ve relied upon for decades. It will entail heavy American bombing. I have vetted this report with a longtime US official in Washington, who told me that all will be “under control” if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei “departs.” Just how that might happen, short of his assassination, is not known. There has been a great deal of talk about American firepower and targets inside Iran, but little practical thinking, as far I can tell, about how to remove a revered religious leader with an enormous following.

I have been told that the White House has signed off on an all-out bombing campaign in Iran, but the ultimate targets, the centrifuges buried at least eighty meters below the surface at Fordow, will, as of this writing, not be struck until the weekend. The delay has come at Trump’s insistence because the president wants the shock of the bombing to be diminished as much as possible by the opening of Wall Street trading on Monday. (Trump took issue on social media this morning with a Wall Street Journal report that said he had decided on the attack on Iran, writing that he had yet to decide on a path forward.)

Fordow is home to the remaining majority of Iran’s most advanced centrifuges that have produced, according to recent reports of the International Atomic Energy Agency, to which Iran is a signatory, nine hundred pounds of uranium enriched to 60 percent, a short step from weapons-grade levels.

The planned weekend bombing will also have new targets: the bases of the Republican Guards, which have countered those campaigning against the revolutionary leadership since the violent overthrow of the shah of Iran in early 1979.

The Israeli leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hopes that the bombings will provide “the means of creating an uprising” against Iran’s current regime, which has shown little tolerance for those who defy the religious leadership and its edicts. Iranian police stations will be struck. Government offices that house files on suspected dissenters in Iran will also be attacked.

Bringing back the shah’s son, now living in exile in near Washington, has never been considered by the American and Israeli planners, I was told. But there has been talk among the White House planning group that includes Vice President J.D. Vance, of installing a moderate religious leader to run the country if Khamenei is deposed. The Israelis bitterly objected to the idea. “They don’t give a shit on the religious issue, but demand a political puppet to control,” the longtime US official said. “We are split with the Izzies on this. Result would be permanent hostility and future conflict in perpetuity, Bibi desperately trying to draw US in as their ally against all things Muslim, using the plight of the citizens as propaganda bait.”

Seymour Hersh

POST SCRIPT

Watch this counter roll of receipts:

1. [DOJ, 2022]:

1. The Department of Justice unsealed charges against Shahram Poursafi (aka Mehdi Rezayi), an alleged IRGC-QF operative, for a murder-for-hire plot targeting John Bolton, and later reportedly also Mike Pompeo

Source: DOJ

2. [State Department via SCMP, 2022]:

The U.S. acknowledged active threats against former officials including Mike Pompeo, confirming that $2 million per month in protective security was being provided due to credible threat assessments.

Source: South China Morning Post

3. [Rewards for Justice, 2023]:

A $20 million reward was offered for information leading to the capture of an IRGC member involved in planning these plots.

Source: Middle East Eye

4. [BBC Report, 2023]:

DOJ indictment of an IRGC member for plotting to assassinate a U.S. national (specifically Bolton) on U.S. soil.

Source: BBC

5. [Unsealed Indictment Document, 2022]:

Original indictment against Poursafi outlining operational details of an attempted assassination.

Source: DOJ

2. Cruz makes specific claims that reference the reported arrests, allegations, charges by DOJ, and the DoJ's clear allegations:

"The US government has brought charges against an Afghan national in connection with an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate Donald Trump before he was elected as the next president.“There are few actors in the world that pose as grave a threat to the national security of the United States as does Iran,” said Attorney General Merrick B. Garland. “The Justice Department has charged an asset of the Iranian regime who was tasked by the regime to direct a network of criminal associates to further Iran’s assassination plots against its targets, including President-elect Donald Trump. We have also charged and arrested two individuals who we allege were recruited as part of that network to silence and kill, on U.S. soil, an American journalist who has been a prominent critic of the regime. We will not stand for the Iranian regime’s attempts to endanger the American people and America’s national security.”
“The charges announced today expose Iran's continued brazen attempts to target U.S. citizens, including President-elect Donald Trump, other government leaders and dissidents who criticize the regime in Tehran,” said FBI Director Christopher Wray. “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — a designated foreign terrorist organization — has been conspiring with criminals and hitmen to target and gun down Americans on U.S. soil and that simply won’t be tolerated. Thanks to the hard work of the FBI, their deadly schemes were disrupted. We're committed to using the full resources of the FBI to protect our citizens from Iran or any other adversary who targets Americans.”
“Actors directed by the Government of Iran continue to target our citizens, including President-elect Trump, on U.S. soil and abroad. This has to stop,” said U.S. Attorney Damian Williams for the Southern District of New York. “Today’s charges are another message to those who continue in their efforts – we will remain unrelenting in our pursuit of bad actors, no matter where they reside, and will stop at nothing to bring to justice those who harm our safety and security. I want to thank the career prosecutors of this office and our law enforcement partners for their ongoing work in this and related investigations. They are truly the best of the best and work tirelessly to keep our country safe.”

DOJ