[Edited for readability vs. length]
In the spirit of transparency and self-evaluation, VST attempts a backtest of its output on the Ukraine war, as well as the same for cited sources.
Cognitive Warfare
VST presented the NATO concept of CW as conducted against a nation’s own populace and that of other nations. As time has progressed, evidence of western CW against its own peoples continues to grow. This is demonstrated by the constantly shifting narrative output by the West, which has moved through limited support to endless support in a self-contradictory manner. Now, all weapons are going to be supplied to Ukraine, up to nuclear, whereas previously the supply of tanks, jets, a no-fly zone and NATO boots on the ground were all escalatory redlines that were all off the table and likely to incite nuclear war.
Ukraine “can and will win” was the West’s mantra, which has now been contradicted by increasing numbers of Western and Ukrainian sources, including Ukraine’s Defence Minister who demanded a shopping list of supplies that has not been granted and couldn’t be provided in a meaningful timeframe, without which he claims the war cannot be won. Despite this, USEUNATO has stated that it is endlessly committed to the Ukraine war on an unlimited basis, although clearly there are major limits and obvious constraints that USEUNATO simply cannot overcome: manpower; kit; skill level; relative timing against Russia’s tactics and strategies; political and military ramifications of any USEUNATO moves i.e. escalations or inadequate counters.
The West has now fully admitted, through official and media sources that:
boots are on the ground and have been since before the beginning of the war, including CIA, US and UK special forces, Polish and Romanian forces, with increasing numbers of US and other troops online in bordering countries;
imported forces have been involved in all aspects of warfare, not just “training”;
mission planning and execution is driven by NATO forces;
war escalation and extension has always been a deliberate tactic, pre-planned before the official start of the war (see Rand Corp’s OverExtending and Unbalancing Russia 2019 and Rand Corp’s Overextending Russia 2019).
Nord Stream 1 & 2 is a key CW event, the likes of which have rarely if ever been seen so overtly in 20th and 21st century history, the possible ramifications of which are monumental.
The West has literally executed narrative incremental crank on its own population. Had it opened in Feb 2022 with “we are going to full-on war with Russia now” then populations may have resisted overtly. To overcome this within a CW framework, a frog-boiling or “slowly enter a hot bath” approach has resulted in an actual direct West vs Russia kinetic war that both sides (in slightly different language) now openly admit.
In Ukraine: The Nexus of Cognitive Warfare - Narrative Consistency 1 & 2, VST tried to crudely chart the trajectory of both side’s narratives.
Then and now, Russia still looks long, medium and short term much more consistent than the West. It has escalated in lockstep with the West’s deliberate intervention, up to full war mode, employing combined arms on its terms and timetable, exercising caution from its defensive line and grinding through Ukrainian forces. It also employs Wagner in an urban CQB environment in Bakhmut, while across the front the Russian military deploys massively effective artillery led combined arms tactics at a firing ratio of up to 10:1 against Ukraine.
Ukraine is wrecked and continues to be wrecked further. Approximately 25%-30% of its populace has fled the country. Its air force is nearly non existent, it has dwindling and poorly integrated air defence and no navy. It has lost between 60 and 95% of its GDP on a territory basis and it will not recover it unless Russia literally gives it back. Ambitions to attack and retake Crimea are cited as impossible by Ukrainian and US military sources.
On this trajectory, VST’s view was reasonable and events have continued on that trajectory. The Ukrainian counter-offensive wasn’t of real strategic value and came at a totally disproportionate cost. Mearsheimer, Cohen et al have been proven fully prescient, or perhaps the situation was entirely predictable. The pro-West narrative continues to largely dismiss Mearsheimer.
In If you can't trust liars about a war on a virus, how can you trust them about a war with Russia?, VST highlighted that:
the West’s statements at the time were already provable lies;
sanctions would not work;
US establishment narrative/spox were already employing nonsense and purile narrative (Ned Price vs. Matt Lee);
Nuland’s legacy was still in play;
False flags were baked into US history;
the West had said “There are also serious implications for energy supplies at a time of rising gas prices. The United States has been clear that Nord Stream 2 would not go ahead” (Liz Truss), meaning that Germany was not a sovereign state. Also, “French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said that the launch of Nord Stream 2 "is one of the main components of de-escalating tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border."”
The man sent to block a Ukraine-Russia peace negotiation, Boris Johnson, is a proven repetitive liar.
A review of VST’s main observations follow.
Who foots the reconstruction bills depends in part on Russia’s ability to resolve and extract from theatre.
The war funding has become obvious. Russia is paying for the whole thing, literally both sides. Not only is it directly funding its operations, but the West is using the stolen Russian foreign reserves of over $400bn to pay for the entire Western side of the conflict. That Russia controls the DPR gas fields is a net offset that will materialise some time after the war is crudely settled. In monetary terms, the West is actually in profit given that it has committed roughly $150bn to the conflict so far. It still has more than $250bn of Russia’s cash to spend on the fight.
Socioeconomic fallout will render change that cannot be fully anticipated before western actions are factored in, but there’s some opportunity for Russia to win political capital via reconstruction.
The level of escalation is likely to have near irreparably crossed the socioeconomic line from the point of the Kerch bridge attack. From this point forwards, VST anticipates that Ukrainian and Russian peoples are split and could manifest in a literal carving up of the country. The entire country has now entered serious deprivation on an energy and eastern supply line basis, which won’t win any Ukrainian hearts and minds. Russia had to accept the reality of full war entering Phase 3.
If stable neutrality cannot be achieved or enforced, Ukraine will remain a long term bipolar liability where nuclear, chemical and biological threats persist.
Aspects of this observation have come much sooner. Ukraine had been constantly shelling nuclear power facilities while the Western media deliberately didn’t name Ukraine as the attacker, despite the Russians occupying the attacked nuclear site. Russia continues to build concrete protection for fuel rod facilities etc. Rumours of a possible Ukrainian dirty bomb plot were “called” by Russia, finally triggering IAEA inspection that claimed no overt evidence. No dirty bomb has gone off, which is the main thing. Ukraine is likely to now be an unstable, pseudo partisan repair job. VST anticipates that from whatever territories remain with the West, serious insurgency will be orchestrated.
An insurgency could target the nuclear reactors, any operational biolabs, gas lines or wheat supplies.
In some forms, these events have happened. Ukraine targeted and destroyed major ammonia supplies, at least one nuclear power station, possibly recently flew a drone with some form of chemical into a Russian location (TBC), and used wheat shipments to hide weapons and illicit cargo. Insurgency tactics have begun to materialise via the Kerch bridge and deep strikes, in which the British have been key.
Disbursal or loss of control of armaments or uncontrolled armed forces dissolution would be a repeat of the mistake the US made in both Iraq and Afghanistan, so I expect Russia will do what it can to shore up and destroy inventories under the banner of demilitarisation, at the very least.
It was confirmed by CBS in its “Arming Ukraine” documentary that 30%+ of arms supplied to Ukraine were missing, with zero oversight, control or accountability. Multiple other sources have confirmed similar including first hand reports from foreign fighters who were in country and managed to leave. The picture painted by these sources is one of organisational chaos, corruption, incompetence and theft, along with bad supply and fighting conditions, despite the massive sums committed to Ukraine to ensure these problems didn’t exist. One fairly captivating source includes a British mercenary, (here, here and here) who was in the major Russian attack on the Yavoriv base. He recounts many issues that are simply absent from the western narrative, including the shambolic native leadership and flat out wholesale theft of an entire Company’s arms supply by that leadership.
Sources also include none other than Andy Milburn, CEO of Mozart Group, which this week collapsed due in large part to Milburn’s own public and private conduct and statements, which suggest he is an “unusual” character with a loose mouth and a propensity get drunk and talk on camera. Milburn literally stated that Ukraine was run by corrupt psychos who were committing war crimes. The Grayzone has two segments, the first of which covers Milburn’s bizarre, factually wrong and practically delusory tweets claiming that Grayzone’s Max Blumenthal authored a deepfake interview of Milburn with Blumenthal, when in fact Milburn was referencing his own drunken podcast with The Team House (here). The second segment sums up Milburn’s declaration that Mozart Group is over following Milburn’s indiscretions in and out of country. Milburn is actually in the CBS Arming Ukraine documentary saying 30%+ of the gear goes AWOL but to him, that doesn’t matter as long as some gets through.
Captured hardware is being used to bolster DPR and LPR forces, so it makes sense to persist with building up those forces by depleting wider Ukraine. That would bolster that front/border from Ukraine but possibly result in an active militarised border or territorial buffer zone.
Russia did indeed capture, repair and redeploy multiple arms and platforms. It has the capability to get repairable tanks and vehicles to its close maintenance positions and recommission Ukraine’s ex Soviet gear.
Western sanctions cut deep both ways. Russia hasn’t even turned off the oil and gas and it’s number one in other essential and highly desirable exports in a time of supply chain meltdown and literal food and fuel shortages. It has a whole second market to supply and practically infinite demand for its major exports as the market prices for most if not all of them climb radically due to both baked-in and resultant inflation. Major customers can and will pay above breakeven rates for them without dollars, and the US attempt to block financial transactions can be multiply bypassed. In doing so, the abandonment of the petrodollar is being accelerated globally and China and Russia are being pushed together instead of separated.
This entire assessment remains largely accurate. The shut off of supply of Russian gas to Europe was initiated by Europe and the US, not Russia (see Nord Stream). Price capping of Russian energy commodities is largely irrelevant in practical terms. Russia is profitable at circa $40/barrel and with an EU cap set at $60, it refused to sell to Europe, which is its right. Meanwhile, its oil is simply relabelled and sold around the world. 90% of companies are still in Russia. The mass exodus hasn’t really materialised according to some sources.
Ukrainian sovereignty/freedom and NATO/EU membership are directly undermined by US intervention over the medium and long term, to the point of paradox and hypocrisy. The degree of lockstep theatrics employed by the western narrative (Zelenskyy’s Oscar, crass speeches etc) is a tell.
This remains accurate.
Weapon sales are a barefaced admission about aspects of what Ukraine is to the west - a flat out proxy to be milked and placed in harm’s way until it is depleted or becomes a quagmire at the expense of the last Ukrainian. The overt and covert western goal is full-on regime change in Russia, now admitted to in theocratic terms by Biden himself.
Accurate. US objectives continue to extend a likely unwinnable war. Nord Stream attack revelations from Seymour Hersh are indeed the quagmire, on top of Biden corruption.
My two guesses are that no matter what the fall out, investigations will be strung out, Biden Snr will Presidentially pardon his own son, and the incoming administration will immunise Biden Snr, in the same way that Obama immunised the Bush administration.
Remains to be seen. Hunter Biden’s crimes are now catalogued by MarcopoloUSA.org in a 644-page PDF, and HB remains under full tax investigation. The HB Laptop narrative is confirmed fully true, paving the way for more Biden family takedowns. Watch this space.
Captured British Mercenaries
DPR and Russia swapped back the captured British mercenaries, Aiden Aslin and Sean Pinner. On arrival in the UK, Aslin immediately changed his tune from his now deleted youtube channel. On that channel, when in captivity, Aslin made many claims of Ukrainian transgressions of the rules of war while expressing regret and remorse for fighting for Ukraine.
From the safety of the UK, Aslin claimed he was tortured and coerced to say all this.
His deleted videos are still available here on Rumble.
VST questioned the point of Aslin saying things that degraded his value in the eyes of British authorities. On the one hand, trusting anything Aslin said while a POW is unwise, given that his objective would have been to survive via any means and propaganda value for Russia did exist. But by contrast, Pinner did not implement or pursue a visibility strategy like Aslin, at all. Aslin seemed free to pursue contact with the BBC, Graham Philipps and John Mark Duggan. Equally one should expect a total about face once freed for at least two reasons: he was actually coerced; he was disingenuous then or is being now.
All of these circumstances render Aslin and Pinner as untrustworthy sources who are engaged in forms of establishment (Russian and British) and personal propaganda and spin ops or agendas.
The Future
VST anticipates that Russia will elect to occupy no more than the DPR - LPR - Crimea land bridge plus possibly a DMZ buffer up to 100 miles deep. Depending upon combat circumstances and outcomes, it may extend to Odessa and landlock “NovoUkraine”. It’s possible that “NovoUkraine” will then be chopped up and parts given to Poland and Hungary, which was always a speculation of some sources since summer 2022. Essentially, a “Korean” outcome for the eastern and southern territories under Russian control and a hatchet job with a blunt knife on the western half.
We do not believe that Russia intended before or now to invade any other European nation. This conflict shows just how hard it is to invade and control bits of a country where one is partially wanted. Try this in Poland, Norway, Finland etc, after this fight and failure is guaranteed for zero meaningful return. The business case and cost benefit simply doesn’t exist, before one weighs the difference between invading a NATO ally and invading a NATO member, irrespective of how depleted NATO’s weapons and manpower actually are.
VST believes that this conflict should actually be primarily settled on a military basis i.e. the fighting should continue to an undeniable victory outcome, rather than subside under negotiations. A clear (enough) military victory will mean:
superiority will be established with hard evidence, forcing the other side to acknowledge a real loss. Should the loser be USEUNATO, the political fall out will be potentially grossly destabilising, with possibly net good medium term outcomes for citizens, should they be able to wake up, seize a chance and replace the widely corrupt political leadership that infests every nation in Europe and USA. That loss could potentially avert the US’s intended war with China. If Russia loses, neofeudalism across Europe and entrenched US vassal slavery is likely to be locked in and an overt pivot towards China may accelerate, despite the likelihood of the West being totally unable to win a conventional war over Taiwan. The real objective is a combination of interference and destabilisation combined with the pursuit of the business of endless war.
massive risk of a nuclear event. Perhaps naively, VST expects a nuclear event to be more likely as the result of a technical or human error than a deliberate act. Even though the US under Biden is likely to be most willing to fire first, we believe that the US extreme strategy is to push Russia so hard as to expose that Russia has no red lines in practise and will not fire then call it out on that basis (Russia has no “tactical sized” warheads) as a coward, and keep bleeding it through war extension and escalation. However, it could seek to provoke a single weapon release to then permanently demonise Russia and all its allies at the literal expense of the largest nuclear detonation in the history of mankind. What this extreme scenario hinges upon is the determined and coordinated control of the West to absolutely not return fire and for Russia to only fire once. Extremes aside, we believe that Russia will never fire nuclear weapons first. If its deadhand system really works, it doesn’t need to. Russia is more likely to unleash the absolute maximum conventional fire on justifiable targets e.g. British jets = Kinzhal on British airfields, in lieu of any nuclear strikes.
The true integrity of both sides’ nuclear fire control chains of command are going to be tested throughout oncoming escalations. Either could fail. In which case, there’s likely little that any citizen can do come that point of a weapons release. However, citizens can do meaningful mass actions now on a co-ordinated basis but they largely don’t and are unlikely to reach critical mass. Protest and demands for change will likely mirror the net ineffective path that Covid took.
VST anticipates that, as per Ritter, MacGregor and Berletic, in conventional terms the West has lost. It cannot flat out win. The risk then is that there is some kind of semi-insane nuclear release, but we expect that to be nipped in the bud by someone sane further down the food chain.
VST suspects that the Seymour Hersh article about the US and Norwegian attacks on NordStream to be a form of just such fire control command chain intervention. We’ll explain how shortly.
Notes
Russian Narrative - Objectives
Russian narrative was largely based on submitted documentation, long-standing western reporting and establishment documentation, none of which has materially changed, covering the historic accounts of Russian issues (the Mearsheimer & Cohen et al overview) that harks back to the end of the USSR and the NATO expansion story, through the 2014 Maidan coup and beyond.
VST summarised Russian demands/objectives at the inception of the invasion as:
The obvious political objectives encompassed by the terms of “demilitarisation” and “denazification” include:
the capture or annihilation of Nazi personnel;
crippling the wider Ukrainian military capability and destruction of all means of external support and resupply;
negotiations… to force political capitulation of the Zelenskyy administration to Russia’s demands of Ukrainian permanent neutrality, recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, recognition of the independence of DPR and LPR, and guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO and abandon any attempt to nuclearize its arsenal.
These objectives are still cited consistently by Russia as being “demilitarisation” and “denazification”, the latter being deliberately questioned as a valid concept by elements of pro-Ukrainian supporters. The former comprises the literal destruction of Ukraine’s military, in whatever form that takes. Note, this objective of demilitarisation does not hinge on territorial capture or expansion. It comprises any form of effective attrition, including the “meat grinder”, cauldroning and defensive grind that Russia has employed in various forms throughout all phases of the war. It also encompasses the wider wrecking of national infrastructure and all forms of military, security and state capability, equipment and personnel by any means. Key examples of this include the ramp up of long and medium range missile strikes across the whole country and the increasing use of air power.
Although Russia’s method of pursuing these objectives have necessarily changed, the public objectives remain stable. Regarding the validity of “denazification” as a thing (which some doubt and consider “made up” by Russia) the concept of denazification was conceived and enshrined in the Yalta Conference 1945, and actively pursued for a time, although it is well known that Nazis were largely let off the hook by multiple nations and reintegrated with multiple societies. Russia and Putin’s administration DID NOT invent the concept of denazification.
Warfighting Phases
Phase 1
The war has shifted phases following first contact and the actions of Russia’s enemies. The initial pre-invasion build-up and threat-backed pressure to negotiate didn’t work, triggering Russia’s recognition of the DPR and LPR two days before the SMO invasion. This first two months or so of fast overwhelm brought Ukraine to the table and nearly to a negotiated deal, until USEUNATO sent its agent, Boris Johnson, to block the negotiations and tell Ukraine to fight on the promise of Western sponsorship. From that point, Russia was fighting through Ukraine Army version 1.0.
Phase 2
From about April 2022, Russia prosecuted multi-front manoeuvre warfare culminating in cauldroning and kettling of a huge amount of Ukraine’s initial Eastern forces that had been pre-positioned by Kiev to commence assaults on DPR and LPR. The destruction and capitulation of large amounts of the Azov battalion in Mariupol was a significant point of territorial gain and demonstration of Russia’s determination and capabilities. In this phase, Ukrainian forces have been recognised as being of remarkable determination and capability, to the point that even now, Scott Ritter states that the various versions of Ukraine’s armed forces represent the best NATO army in Europe (for multiple reasons). Russia has suffered and faced serious, brutal combat and endured significant losses.
Phase 2 encompassed Summer 2022 with Russian forces being over-extended across a 1000km front, holding the Crimea - DPR - LPR land bridge. As Ukraine Army version 2.0 took form, Russia actively pulled back. Ukrainian elements of advance commenced that had a possibility of encircling some elements of Russian forces. Ukrainian 2.0 forces advanced to take the territory Russia was abandoning, and in doing so in some regions suffered extremely high rates of loss (5:1 per WaPo reporting that quoted Ukrainian forces directly). Phase 2 stabilised on a new front roughly concordant with the Dnipro river, with Russia holding Kharkov in the south.
Phase 2 roughly ended in early winter 2022 when Russia left Kherson at the southern end of the Dnipro and withdrew to the Eastern bank, and dug in on an established defensive north south line.
Phase 3
Phase 3 saw the Russian mobilisation of 300,000 reservists over Winter 2022, while Ukraine was into its 6th or 7th draft of men between ages 18 and 60. During this period, Russia largely held a defensive line while Ukrainian forces attempted assaults on those locations and the slow back and forth grind played out.
By this time, Ukraine MoD was claiming a Russian casualty count of over 65,000 and growing by 300+ kills per day. When compared to the Russian MoD Ukrainian casualty count, the numbers were strangely almost the same and growing at a similar rate.
Ukrainian forces were now recognised by some military analysts (MacGregor, Ritter and Berletic) as being materially different in make-up, training and equipment than in Phase 3. These forces were now a de facto NATO force, openly supplemented by foreign “legion” and mercenary forces, Polish and Romanian “sheep dipped” troops and French, British, US spec ops, commanders and intel personnel all active in theatre. The West was providing full satellite and intel services, targeting, planning and logistic support, while denying it was actively at war with Russia. NATO’s military council was still formally denying it was at war with Russia, while the aforementioned analysts were calling a spade a spade, as were the Russians themselves.
The Grayzone acquired documentary evidence of direct British involvement in the bombing of the Kerch bridge, and the Ukrainians actually completely gave away their premeditated and assisted attack by having the Ukrainian Post Office sell bizarre commemorative stamps depicting the attack as was detailed in the British plans, which specified detonations on two spans of the bridge. The attack itself took the form of a truck bomb that was enabled by third party nations and killed the unsuspecting truck driver and surrounding civilians. It took out one road section and some upper rail, but was back open in a short time.
Russian escalatory attacks began in major form following the Kerch bridge bombing. Massive waves of missile and kamikaze drone strikes were unleashed on command and control and infrastructure targets, cutting power to about 30% ahead of Christmas as starting to sever rail routes.
Throughout this phase, negotiation possibilities nominally still existed but both sides had pre-requisites that the other wouldn’t meet. Kiev demanded the total withdrawal of Russian forces and Russia demanded negotiation from the de facto line against a consistent list of demands, which USEUNATO refused from the the outset. Although Russia explicitly demanded that negotiations would need to involve the organ grinder (US) and not the monkey (Ukraine) and had done throughout Phase 2, Phase 3 drew to a close with the termination of negotiation possibilities.
Multiple sources admitted to deliberate subterfuge and betrayal of the Minsk 1 and 2 agreements. Ukraine, Germany and other parties all began to publicly admit that there had never been true intent to honour Minsk and they were cover to simply buy time to arm Ukraine in advance of a Western planned war, which is in keeping with how events did pan out and also key reveals such as the 2017 Lindsey Graham statement that 2017 was a year of “action” etc. This effectively confirmed that Russia had been lied to and betrayed, and therefore terminated any basis of trust essential for negotiations. Multiple deep strike attacks into Russian territory have been prosecuted with the direct involvement of Western forces including: Starlink-powered remote aquatic drone strikes against the Black Fleet in Sevastopol; multiple border town fuel and ammo depot strikes; a long range drone strike against an airfield housing Russian nuclear bombers.
Phase 4
Phase 4 is where Russia presently meets West. Russian mobilised forces are increasingly coming to theatre with Belarussian build up to the north and strengthening supply lines from the Russian side and foreign ally ties e.g. Iranian ongoing drone capability supply (either plans or actual drones). Russian hardware reinforcements include more tanks of advanced models, more troops and no apparent ammo or supply shortages. A major assault over winter has been anticipated but major, kinetic breakouts have yet to materialise. Instead, the meat grinder approach seems to remain in play, particularly around Bakhmut, whose strategic significance has been denied by Ukraine despite it committing large forces to hold and defend. Wagner forces have largely led the grind and cauldron progress and continue to take ground to the point that Western narrative has acknowledged the progression.
Into phase 4, Ukrainian losses have been confirmed by Ursula von der Leyen as above 100k dead, with other estimates climbing as high as 150k, and injured possibly similar ranges. Russian dead somewhere between 15 and 40k. Western reports have literally stated that injured Ukrainian troops (including amputees) are being cycled back to fight. At time of writing the Ukrainian draft is into possibly its 12th round, with increasing amounts of video footage of purportedly Ukrainian civilian men being literally accosted in public and private by militia, military or security personnel who serve papers then immediately pressgang them into service while onlookers sometimes object.
Upcoming Western Supplies
Western supplies now span export version M1A2 Abrams, Challenger 2 and Leopard 2 tanks, with pledges currently totalling circa 100, with unclear delivery and training timeframes. A single Patriot battery (operational radius of 90km) with a training lead time of 6 months for basic operation of its 90-man team began last month. Mothballed HAWK anti-air batteries are being dusted down. Bradley IFVs and some “light tanks” are also on the list. While kit is specified and publicised, Western media and narrative shies away from the training, skills and manpower constraints. What is being telegraphed now is that the West is not and has not been fully strategic about supply support since the invasion began, rather it has been running on piecemeal tactical basis. This is deeply significant from this point on. Russia’s lead time in theatre is short. Its reservists are experienced and being refreshed through various work ups. Ukraine’s personnel are being trained in and out of country, are often green, and being trained across a wide range of discordant equipment and weapons systems. All of this carries major lead times of maybe 5 weeks basic infantry training, possibly 5 weeks for basic Bradley training, but minimums of 6 months for basic tank and patriot operation. None of these timeframes really include fighting capability, which is a whole other level of skill that comes long after basic training. All of this means two things. Either Ukrainian forces will never be capable of fighting effectively with any of the increasingly complex and heavy weapon systems (tanks, IFVs, Patriot) or actual NATO troops will be boots on ground and arses in seats doing the fighting. The latter is total, undeniable and all out war. In reality, only a fool would suggest that we are not already at this point and have been for some time.
US Biolabs
Russia has increased its public and UN statements about Ukrainian biolabs. It claims to have over 20,000 documents related to broad spectrum biological and bioweapons research, spanning multiple sites, including anthrax. It has presented evidence at least twice to the UN SC with growing demands for formal investigations, which are still being denied. The US has been shown to have lied in its initial denials to the UN SC about the labs (but likely on a semantic basis) and continues to play weasel word games through the media and “fact checkers” to deny that there are 46 biolabs in Ukraine. The western media reporting of the labs has spanned a comedic range from this CNN report in March 2022:
Analysis: Russia and QAnon have the same false conspiracy theory about Ukraine
to the final, forced admission that the Hunter Biden Laptops are real, and that the contents covering Metabiota labs and the Rosemont Seneca fund are all real, where previously they have been denied as “conspiracy theories”.
The HB laptop, biolabs, Biden family corruption and US administration’s orchestration of the entire Maidan coup narratives are all being multiply confirmed as time goes on. None of these narratives are being proven as conspiracy theories.
Western narrative
Western sanctions have failed against Russia and succeeded against US allies
Sanctions narrative is demonstrably false. Russia has nearly totally weathered all the sanctions that are publicly discussed and benefitted from the swings in currency values and prices of its exports. The prior work it has done with its allies around de-dollarisation in all its forms is paying dividends now. Meanwhile, Europe and the UK are all struggling under huge politically-induced inflation, forced (planned) de-industrialisation and various, increasing forms of political and social destabilisation. Amongst this, political corruption, largesse, pseudo chaos, opportunism and increasing neo-feudal and authoritarian trajectories swirl and the citizenry are largely enduring it all. Dutch farmers are being robbed of their property, but their protests are being suppressed both physically and in the wider media.
Western Phase 4 war supplies
Western arms stocks are literally being depleted to minimum readiness capabilities, furthering the military industrial surveillance (and congress) complex gravy train, as per the general war plan. However, due to the nature of the decisions to commit increasing hardware to the fight, the West runs two open risks: ever increasing escalation to a nuclear event as it deliberately searches for Russia’s actual red lines; the commitment of its showcase hardware to a real combat test against a truly capable foe. The former sees the nuclear clock at 90 seconds to midnight - do with that what you will, little people with zero influence or control. The latter is an interesting situation that exposes the West’s “A1” weapons to real tests but could really represent a final moment where the West pulls its own pants down even further than it already has.
Export versions of the M1A2 Abrams excludes the depleted uranium/composite armour, making it standard steel armour, possibly even lacking explosive reactive armour. If that’s the case, these tanks will be no better equipped to withstand any Russian anti-tank attack than Ukraine’s best T72s. Also, the Abrams is the most complex tank system in the world, requiring 4 crew versus the soviet design requirement of 3 crew (due to the autoloader). These are totally different fighting dynamics, where fighting requires fluid operational capability that leaves tactical capacity for the co-ordinated fight. Good luck building that in minimum training windows in a tank that can be broken or break you through incorrect operation. On top of all this, the Abrams is turbine powered, drinks 6 gallons of jet fuel per mile and has major and specific maintenance requirements that simply don’t exist in Ukraine, where fuel and electricity are both in short supply.
Meanwhile, Challenger and Leopard tanks are totally different platforms with zero interoperability or commonality. While the leopard has a “simple” diesel engine, both tanks still have all the same support, maintenance and repair bottlenecks, assuming they make it to the frontlines.
What difference will 30 - 100 mixed western tanks make? Most reasonable commentators who factor the big picture plus the time delay till arrival at the front, think they will make literally zero difference.
The following aspects of the Western narrative have all been contradicted or proven untrue:
Ukrainian “sovereignty” - Ukraine is not a sovereign nation. It is totally dependent upon USEUNATO money to run every aspect of the state and the war. It is literally a slave of the US.
US political intervention - is fully apparent and increasingly proven and admitted (Minsk, Nord Stream, war supply, fighting, negotiations etc).
NATO/EU membership - NATO membership is a pipedream. EU membership is a theatrical carrot, described this week as literally years away if Ukraine can meet “tests”. It’s a political, economic and financial basket case that will not be formally absorbed.
Russian underperformance - as a blanket term, this is false. In terms of dynamic war fighting the likes of which have been absent from Europe and, in fact, most of the world since WW2, Russia has performed well enough to have wrecked huge amounts of Ukraine and be considered by Ritter, MacGregor, Berletic, The Duran and other serious and credible commentators as “winning”. Multiple western and Ukrainian military sources have stated that the war is unwinnable for Ukraine both directly and indirectly, which begs the question of the ethics, morality and point of the West continuing to extend the war and having Ukrainians forced to fight.
Stalled operations - Russia isn’t fighting this war on terms that the West anticipated or recognises. It has constantly realigned, adapted then executed. The West presents a notion that this is a territorial war (when Ukraine was “countering” and taking land) when actually Russia is fighting a war of attrition on its own terms. In this context, territory is not the measure of success and not a primary metric. Therefore motion, advance and manoeuvre aren’t necessarily key. If the front doesn’t move but Ukraine continues to lose its forces on that line to the point that there are no more forces, Russia is then free to take all the territory it wants.
Massive casualties - there is no question Russia is paying in blood and taking significant losses, but the top end of reasonable estimates are less than half that of Ukraine’s multiply admitted losses. Real war is costly. The West has spent decades in unreal war against pitiful foes. Russia is fighting USEUNATO which totals more than ten countries and comprises two of the largest economic blocs on the planet, and its holding its own on every front.
Weapons/ammo exhaustion - this constantly repeated claim that the West makes is untrue. Russia shows no signs of running low on ammo. Ukraine shows the total opposite in its increasingly desperate begging for supplies and dredging of manpower through drafts that could soon include women.