Ukraine: The Nexus of Cognitive Warfare - Narrative Consistency 1/2
A month into the conflict. Which narratives have changed?
WARNING: Graphic content in this article.
How consistent is either side’s narrative on the Ukrainian conflict? What, if anything, can we infer from narrative (in)consistency?
There are multiple ways I could present the following, and there are at least two limitations that immediately strike me, which are worth declaring up front.
What follows is highly subjective based on my ability to parse multiple sources and cross reference.
Removing personal and cognitive bias may be tricky, especially when I factor in my choice of sources, which is inherently prejudicial.
I’ve chosen to take each of the narrative sub headings from my previous article, Ukraine: The Nexus of Cognitive Warfare - Narratives to date, and consider consistency under each sub heading from inception to today.
Russian Narrative
Nato expansion
Consistent. No change from the Russians. NATO and US rhetoric has increased via double down i.e. “More NATO needed.” Expansion into Moldova and Georgia expressly telegraphed. I suspect Georgia is a likely next flashpoint.
Ultranationalism, extreme right, (neo-) Nazis
Increasing. As Russia advances and takes territory, “evidence” and testimony is starting to flow. As the conflict has progressed, eastern, pro-Russian and some independent sources indicate varying degrees of right-wing presence and degrees of their activity in the conflict.
The single most extreme example I have seen to date is the corpse of a murdered, tortured, cruelly bound woman whose torso was apparently marked in blood with a swastika. She was found in an abandoned Azov base in the basement of School #25 in Mariupol, by DPR militia personnel and the American independent journalist, Patrick Lancaster. Note, her throat was tied with and her mouth stuffed with plastic or sheeting. What the truth of this report is, I do not know, beyond what Lancaster describes and the knowledge that such a death and final resting state is brutal, cruel and tragic.
Woman found tortured in school basement "Military Base" in Mariupol - Patrick Lancaster
Video footage from southfront.org purportedly taken by Ukrainian forces of their handling of Russian POWs shows:
All Russian POWs appear to have leg wounds, some multiply wounded;
Some heavily wounded POWs have their heads bagged;
Wounds are not dressed;
POWs being brutalised;
Three POWs are dragged from a van and all three are shot in their legs at near point blank range.
Photographs also depict:
either live wounded and/or dead (presumably Russian) personnel in the back of a van, blindfolded with tape;
what is described as a torture chamber, with possible electroshock equipment.
Source: Southfront.org - SHOCKING EVIDENCE OF UKRAINIAN REGIME’S ESSENCE
Caveat emptor. It’s impossible to know the truth of the above.
“Regionalised genocide” and weaponised drought
Consistent.
Civilian reports seem to continue to back up that Ukrainian forces have:
directly attacked civilians since 2014 and over the last month;
occupied and fought from mixed civilian locations including schools, residences and possibly hospitals. To do so, they have brutalised, evicted and attacked civilians throughout the conflict;
Civilian evacuation movements into Russia suggest that, for some civilians egress to Russia is acceptable or necessary. Western refugee numbers declare 10m displaced, 3.5m egress with 271,000 to Russia.
Wealth/Poverty/Resources
Consistent.
Russia has not turned off energy supplies. Per Cohen and Mearsheimer’s long standing analysis, Russian military operations are “wrecking” Ukraine. The meaning of this term should be considered in the current context of strategic objectives.
Ukrainian neutrality is not underpinned purely by Ukrainian promises. It is enacted and enforced by circumstance, capability, credible threat, economics and more. What people say is irrelevant compared to what they do or can do.
Ukraine becomes poorer by the day in multiple ways. Years of western economic and military investment are being undone. Crippling the military and wider damage increases reconstruction costs to get back to pre-NATO build-up standards. NATO and the EU are now looking at massive expenditure on immediate reconstruction and the long term subsidy/redistribution from the wider bloc to notionally raise up Ukraine, although it won’t really work like that. If that is debt financed from Ukraine via, say, IMF loans, that money flows straight out into western corporate hands (wealth transfer) and that further cripples Ukraine economically into the future. Thus, it will be beholden to its western controlled debt. This could render Ukraine simply too expensive a liability for the EU and/or NATO, depending upon how they view their return on investment e.g. it could create an ultra-cheap sweatshop on the edge of Europe to undercut other eastern EU members and provide more cheap migrant labour.
It could be different for Russia going forwards. If it extracts and takes the DPR, LPR and keeps Crimea, it is incentivised to reconstruct those regions as an act of benevolence in its strategic interest for stability, and hearts and minds. Recovered Ukrainian weaponry is being fed to the DPR and LPR militias now, so that’s a way to bolster these regions militarily at Ukraine’s expense to create a militarised buffer region. If wider Ukraine is forced to literally demilitarise as part of neutrality, the asymmetry of the Russian backed/controlled DPR & LPR’s cheaply bolstered military (via recovered weaponry) radically increases against a neutral Ukraine with no military capability. Also, Russia’s overt payback is control over DPR’s 3 trillion cubic metres of frackable shale gas, the obvious market for which is the EU, sold to them in gold-backed rubles and bitcoin. That’s gas that can be piped overland in an existing network instead of being liquefied and shipped. If the DPR is already damaged and people have been already displaced, what “reconstruction” actually looks like is up for grabs. There’s potential there, with gas money, to transform that region and gas, like oil, is a means to back a currency. Additionally, Donbass & Mariupol are on the Black Sea with a valuable industrial base, plus gas. Hello inbound wealth. LNG demand is on the up. Ukraine could have had all this if it had been nice to the DPR, but instead it tried to destroy the region and woke up the Bear. That’s western “strategy” for you.
Russia’s pre-stated demands and objectives
Consistent. Ukrainian neutrality, demilitarisation, denazification, abandon Crimea, recognise DPR & LPR, never join NATO. That’s still all in play and Ukraine doesn’t dictate the terms under its present circumstances.
Zelenskyy has already begun to concede on NATO membership. A negotiation round today has shown that the Kiev offer goes conditionally further than this into neutrality and formal demilitarisation. Russia’s position is not clear from statements released so far, and I doubt it is wise to guess or judge anything based on statements. I have two primary measures: who does what and who signs what. I suspect Russia will keep its operation going. It does not need, at this time, to attempt to sack Kiev.
I don’t see how it’s really in Russia’s interests to stop assaults in the areas it’s already controlling in the pursuit of demilitarisation and denazification. It doesn’t have to enter Kiev, which will become a humanitarian nightmare, and in this present state of affairs Zelenskyy is at the table. If you have destroyed his air force, navy, a major proportion of his army and largely eradicated his fanatical Nazi militia (the most motivated troops in the country), why do you need to smash the capital? You will alienate the civilians. You can get the known Nazis in Kiev through other means. For example, if you complete the offensive work in the other regions, you can then redeploy your spare capacity around Kiev and ratchet up your demands (“turn over these people”) or commence various forms of operations. Or you can act through various political means over time after formal hostilities have ended. We’ll see.
Purported Ukrainian assault in DPR may have been key factor driving Russian intervention
Consistent. Russia hasn’t moved on this and reports from multiple sources seem to back up the 8 years of Ukrainian internal violence.
Russia gears up to CQB, expands targeting and heavy weapons
Increasing. Russia has stepped up the assault, taken more ground and increased its control. Multiple sources confirm this, including the Mayor of Mariupol who stated that the city - the Azov stronghold - is under Russian control. Azov is reported to be backed up to the coast in a shrinking zone.
Russia has destroyed at least two mercenary bases and it reports that there are circa 6000 in country, but that the ingress has stopped.
According to Scott Ritter, the Russians see mercenaries as sub-human. Russian MOD has explicitly stated that they are illegal combatants, not subject to the rule of war and therefore will be mercilessly destroyed. Ritter reckons there’s three fates awaiting them: abandonment, death or life in a gulag. If 6000 have entered, of which some are clearly amateurs and others who might be less amateur still post selfies on instagram, Russian intel is probably having a pretty easy job of marking targets for strike. If the presence of mercenaries implies proximity to weapons, that’s two birds with one stone via mobile phone signals. I saw an unverified social media post begging mercenaries to not take selfies, post to social media etc etc. It beggars belief that such messages would need to be promulgated. “Remember guys, you’re entering a warzone to become an illegal combatant. You don’t carry anyone’s flag so in some people’s eyes you’re potentially being paid to commit murder. Be careful what you tweet and post. Yeah, you can call your mom as long as you use your own phone and minutes.”. BOOM! Despite this, the west is openly backing mercenaries.
Kinzhal hypersonic missiles have been used in dramatic show of force that sends very powerful messages to NATO and the globe. Air launched from Russian airspace, the Kinzhal has a 1200nm+ range. Launch from western Ukraine and targets across Europe open up. Ritter posits that NATO C&C locations would be options, for example. Although the western media suggest that the Kremlin’s statement of “consequences you have never seen” must mean nukes, it doesn’t have to. The Kinzhal is immune to present air defence systems and no one’s been on the receiving end of them until now. You could take out multiple NATO command centres in one launch.
Western media has discussed the use of thermobaric weapons as though that in itself is illegal (it’s not, see US use of MOAB in Afghanistan). What they don’t say is why they might be used and on what (see biolabs).
CQB engagements are taking ground and the Russia propaganda feeds are showcasing troops in action and the captured and killed Ukrainians, along with various “evidence” of nazism and other unpleasantness. The Chechens under Ramzan Khadyrov are marketed as leading the final closure on Azov in Mariupol. Controlled footage and some independent reporting shows Russian humanitarian relief in eastern locations.
US Biolabs
Escalating. Strike maps seems to correlate with some biolab locations across the country, but concentrated in the eastern half. Thermobaric weapon use has been discussed in the western media. As Ritter points out, that kind of weapon would suit effective annihilation of a biolab due to its detonation characteristics.
The information, “evidence” and narrative is now out in the public sphere and the UNSC. Russia, China, India and Kenya requested investigations while the other nations flat out denied the accusations. The US has now admitted the presence of labs but plays semantics with what their purpose is.
The biolab narrative ties into the Hunter Biden and Biden family corruption narrative. If true, this has the potential to sink the current US administration and possibly elements of the US deep state. From an information/CW perspective, this is a strike with a global blast radius. This probably hinges in part on the gangs within the UNSC and the limits of power and truth in the US judicial system.
US political and financial corruption, Biden family
Escalating on two fronts. In the US, the formerly denied and derided Hunter Biden laptop story has now been admitted as truthful. DOJ is investigating Hunter Biden on tax matters that draw in wider issues. Burisma, Rosemont Seneca, Metabiota and connections back to the US and the President are all in play. This change is, in itself, a massive blow to both US political and media credibility and exposes narrative collusion.
Beyond this, the very nature of the work conducted in labs around the world by the US tie in to the Covid and Gain of Function narratives. The details and evidence are already in the open and have been for more than a year but remain largely suppressed in the MSM when, combined with US biolabs and Hunter Biden, it should be headline news on the scale of the Snowden revelations.
Russia is amplifying the US side of this corruption narrative via biolabs and the Ukrainian NABU release of corroborating transaction information from their side of the Biden deals (subject to scrutiny and verification).
Sanctions, exports, assets, currency
Escalating. Double-edged sword. The point of US sanctions are to hurt the Russian people to destabilise the Putin regime, but they are doing the same thing to the west while cementing and accelerating the rise of the trans Eurasian bloc. Sanctions countermeasures are being deployed.
Yesterday, the ruble was pegged to gold and so Russian oil is now for sale priced in gold. Russia has said, “no rubles, no gas or oil.” The OFF switch can be flicked at any time, leaving supply available for non-hostile customers with infinite demand. Russian oil costs are unclear, with basic estimates at around $40-60/bl before additional costs, but could be lower. At present prices, there’s margin for discount. Recent reported deals with India and China are not publishing pricing.
Internal dissent control
Consistent.
Continued…