Murder-Based Order: USIS-Iran War Week 1

Observations, backtests, predictions

USIS War Justification

Causal reasoning is irreversibly unstable and contradictory, but features a full admission of what VST has always posited as ground floor reality: International Humanitarian Law represents zero constraint to USIS in any action. USIS has formally, publicly declared this again:

Our rules of engagement are bold, precise and designed to unleash American power, not shackle it. This was never meant to be a fair fight, and it is not a fair fight. We are punching them while they're down, which is exactly how it should be. Thus far, Operation Epic Fury has delivered twice the air power of shock and awe of Iraq in 2003, minus Paul Bremer and the Nation Building.

In fact, yesterday in the Indian Ocean, and we'll play it on the screen there, an American submarine sunk an Iranian warship that thought it was safe in international waters. Instead, it was sunk by a torpedo, quiet death. The first sinking of an enemy ship by a torpedo since World War II.

Pete Hegseth, 04/03/26

These two paragraphs abandon IHL and admit to war crimes on the open seas, as defined in IHL. Whatever USIS RoE are remain publicly undefined so cannot be determined to align with IHL. The USIS attack against the unarmed and non-offensive Iranian frigate, IRIS Dena, was an illegal attack and an abandonment of responsibilities following the attack.

Furthermore, that attack in particular highlights the USIS schizophrenia. If it is not at war, it cannot attack that frigate. If it is at war, it technically remains legally bound by IHL for to its ongoing legal commitments to the U.N. Charter etc.

What, in fact, USIS has attempted to do is bilaterally act outside of U.N. Charter etc, while after-the-fact attempting to emulate Russia's “Special Military Operation” categorisation. In both cases, legal semantics are employed in order to bypass IHL and domestic laws, in various ways. However, USIS’s glaring ineptitude and self-contradiction upfront has undermined itself in an extremely amateur way.

Regardless, the USIS “justification” is irrelevant because IHL does not exist. It will not be held accountable under IHL, only in combat.

Tell tale signs of low internal competence

1. Inconsistency of message/objective

2. Internal contradictions between parties

3. Vague use of language/terms

4. Reactive actions/statements

5. Propensity for angry/violent outburst

6. Vindictive action towards questioners/opposition

7. Abandonment of established norms

PREDICTION: No member of the USIS administration or militaries will ever be held to account for any actions taken in this war, other than by death or injury on the battlefield. There is literally no mechanism by which to do so, regardless of what anyone says, wants, or calls for.

Resignation is not punishment, it is escape to freedom. Psychopaths have no shame.

Impeachment is a process that requires a 2/3 majority vote at the last stage, making it unlikely to be achievable if Trump is achieved and the process up to that point just a show without real consequence. This isn't punishment for genocide, illegal acts of war and other war crimes.

USA Congressional & Senatorial Statements

Any statements given by any USA politician regarding lack of imminent threat, inadequate justification, failure to follow USA constitutional or legal processes etc are totally disingenuous, fake, performative, theatrical statements. There was no imminent threat, no justification for war, no legal argument, sure. But saying that publicly then failing to maximally act against an administration acting illegally is co-participation in the resulting acts.

No one attempted to build pre-emptive opposition ahead of an impending use of military force that was telegraphed by asset positioning, USIS statements and threats issued publicly and repetitively to Iran by the administration. After war was initiated, the Senate rejected a War Powers Resolution to require congressional approval for further US military action against Iran by 48-52 . This lets operations continue without new authorization. This is a fundamental indicator of the agenda in play. “Right/wrong”, “legal/illegal” as those labels apply only to executive power versus constitutional law (irrespective of what the action actually is), are not valued by the majority. When it comes to the highest form of crime - illegal war - those voting No are actively coparticipant endorsers of such actions and are completely immune from any form of meaningful consequences. Further, I continue to argue that this is performative politics anyway. Likely, many in the Yes camp vote Yes to give the illusion of legal process knowing the outcome will always favour No. The Senate has now admitted it is on-board with constitutional abandonment and the total perversion, corruption and undermining of US domestic law. This is a declaration of a long known reality. This is irreversible by any means. No future administration will reverse away from this position because there's no need to and because this is the actual way in which military force has been continuously used since Vietnam.

Presidential Impeachment

The notion/assumption that Trump will be impeached at some point must be qualified:

1. Why - for what political purpose

2. For what specific actions

3. What impeachable actions will be suppressed/excluded

4. By whom

5. When

Impeachment is entirely politically theatrical, and will have nothing to do with stopping the specific, actual criminality.

The moment Trump's second term began the administration became a coparticipant in genocide—an impeachable offence. No one ever tried to impeach him for this because:

I. Across the Uniparty board, Palestinian genocide is a strategic USIS objective and almost every politician is on-board with this in real terms;

II. To impeach Trump for genocide is to then have to admit that Biden was guilty of the same crime, which is an admission of the Uniparty strategic objective of genocide in pursuit of the USIS Greater Israel and Middle Eastern Israeli-centric USIS hegemony, of which the post 9/11 illegal wars were all a part.

Impeachment is initiated in the House by introducing articles of impeachment. This can occur through several mechanisms:

• Resolution introduced by a House member

• A Representative submits a resolution containing articles of impeachment.

• Referral to the House Judiciary Committee

• The resolution is typically referred to the House Judiciary Committee, which investigates and drafts articles.

No Member of Congress will introduce a resolution based on the Palestinian genocide, including Rep. Thomas Massie who nominally objects to actions in Palestine, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who explicitly said:

The horrors unfolding in northern Gaza are the result of a completely unrestrained Netanyahu gov, fully armed by the Biden admin while food aid is blocked and patients are bombed in hospitals.

This is a genocide of Palestinians. The US must stop enabling it. Arms embargo now.

AOCIA 14/10/24

This means that their objection is meaningless and therefore performative. They should initiate the impeachment process for genocide, and pursue it as far as possible, even though it will fail in subsequent stages.

The above means that the notion that some of Congress are truly opposed to Trump entirely is untrue, otherwise they would attempt impeachment for genocide and try to label him a genocidaire. At least, avoiding the cross contamination to the Biden era is more important than taking down Trump, which means there's no real opposition to Trump.

After genocide, any act that is illegal/unconstitutional and confined to this administration should be fair game. Examples may include the illegal imposition of tariffs that the Supreme Court has recently ruled on, and now the initiation of the illegal war on Iran.

HYPOTHESIS & PREDICTION: Factional Uniparty politics are in play. War on Iran is a USIS strategic, Uniparty objective. Trump is the bagman for the success or failure of that objective and will be unimpeded in its pursuit. The midterms will partially reflect sentiment towards the actions and then status of the war come November 2026. Democrats will performatively campaign citing tariffs and Iran, while not impeaching him for either. After the midterms, Democrats may try to impeach him for whatever reasons in order to performatively claim the “high ground” in advance of 2028

elections, while making him the nominal bagman for the Iran War's costs. This approach maximally exploits his political public utility (attacking Iran) and permits the theatre of a two party system that doesn't really exist (“we impeached him because we oppose illegal war, just don't ask us how long it took or why we abandoned the Senate challenge on the War Powers Act etc”). The reason why Trump might be eventually impeached will not be because he did something wrong and the man must be punished in order to structurally fix the position of President on a permanent basis. It will occur only as a theatrical damage containment exercise that pins short term blame onto Trump for theatrical reasons. Nothing structural will be fixed or changed with regards to the wielding of administrative power. Pursuit of USIS strategic objectives will not be materially impeded by any actions against the administration.

Oil, Water, Fertilizer, Food, Transport, General Inflation

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to most traffic, a set of corollaries must follow. Oil should exceed $150/bl within two more weeks, possibly exceeding $200/bl at an unknown rate if further oil production facilities are damaged (at time of writing, USIS struck three Iranian oil production/storage facilities, with responses and escalation pending).

USIS has also bombed an Iranian water desalination plant serving 30 urban centres, response/escalation pending. This means scope for regional desalination capacity to be degraded exists if:

• Iran reciprocates against Israeli desalination facilities (against IHL);

• Iran determines to attack other countries’ desalination facilities (against IHL);

• USIS attacks more Iranian desalination facilities and/or that of other countries (on covert or false flag grounds to frame Iran and trigger reciprocity).

Oil isn’t the primary fulcrum. Water desalination is. 4 days without water results in death. This situation escalates reciprocally and rapidly. Iran faces toughening choices about targeting: mirror USIS tactics on water attacks or stick to IHL. Because USIS doesn’t follow IHL it has a psychopathic combat advantage unless and until Iran meets it on its level.

PREDICTION: USIS will strike all Iranian desalination facilities within a month of the war's start. This will see no significant political and media attention in USIS, and the United Nations will practically ignore it. If Iran reciprocates against any facilities, USIS and the U.N. will highlight those strikes on a biased, partisan basis against Iran.

Fertilizer production depends on oil and energy as feedstock so, on a lagging basis rising oil prices and the prevention of fertilizer shipping from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz impacts food supply and prices in all time frames.

The rising oil price and shut down of critical transport nodes ( e.g. Dubai) raise the cost of all transport. The first squeeze will apply to air transport and freight. That industry will initiate similar strategies seen in Covid to crush their internal personnel costs using fear techniques and exploitative policies that unions will also enable, as per Covid.

All of the above will drive massive general inflation that will sustain because of mixed temporal pull through i.e. deep, complex lagging effects, and because there will be mass exploitation of price gouging behaviours. Prices will rise over the real underlying inflation simply because they can, as has already been seen post Covid. Corporate margins will grow, instead of remaining stable or shrink. Shrinkflation in all forms will reach ludicrous proportions.

USIS is a single, degenerate entity. Enshittification is endemic

It is now obvious that the USA and Israel operate as a single entity to all practical extents. Arguing whether the tail wags the dog is to miss the obvious truth:

You’re looking at a dog, and talking about a dog; the dog has a tail.

Try focusing on what the entire dog is doing. It has a mouth & teeth, bites, and is dangerous. All of that’s more critical than whether the control is in the brain or somewhere else. No one has an effective means to contain the dog, let alone perform tail removal surgery. In the case of the USIS dog, removing its tail would require removing parts of every other structure and tissue type because the two nations are fully integrated at every level.

Observing the USIS public presentation of anything governmental should reveal the following:

• There's no difference between the narrative style, cadence, construction or execution of communications and policies of USA or Israel.

• The techniques either country applies externally to their enemies (and friends) are applied internally against society at all levels. What was once exported as foreign policy and technique has come home to roost.

• The intellectual level of everything has collapsed. You are looking at massive intellectual degeneracy across the information sphere. This is what politics as reality TV on fentanyl, pitched at retards, funded by massive budgets—of which only 5% goes on the actual content—looks like. This is also manifest in the total, constant lying of governments within themselves and publicly. This is patently obvious in real time across Five Eyes, EU and NATO blocs and has been for decades, but it is at peak now and will simply increase.

Iranian Air Defence: basic metrics

Air Defence exists to defend critical targets. If those targets are critically hit, AD either:

1. Didn’t exist there;

2. Was defeated.

Both of these outcomes feed intel back into the attacker’s understanding of the defender’s AD network's weak points and critical paths, informing subsequent attacks. Standoff weapons e.g. Tomahawks and attack aircraft fly complex paths based on the attacker's knowledge of the defender's AD network.

Alastair Crooke's claims that Iran's AD and defensive capabilities are bolstered by Chinese and/or Russian systems may be inaccurate. The hits on Iran's oil facilities could indicate this. The limitations of ammo and system capability apply to all sides, but unlike the visuals of active AD in Israel and GCCs, Iranian footage doesn't depict active AD, only strikes, but this isn't enough to form hard conclusions about Iran’s overall AD capabilities..

The damage to the oil facilities could each represent single strikes that got through an air defence shield, or a lack of air defence.

Standoff vs Air Supremacy

Hegseth claimed air supremacy would be achieved within a week. This hasn't been proven to have happened. Strikes appear to concentrate across the west of Iran and in Tehran, consistent with standoff weapons and possibly B2 strikes. USIS hasn't shown independent proof of air supremacy. Iran claims to have downed circa 82 large attack and surveillance drones and other, smaller air threats.

Iran's true AD capabilities and performance remains unclear. It absorbs attacks for now while claiming to be downing air threats within range. USIS has been showing strike footage that actually includes depictions of striking decoys and false targets.

If Iran is judicious in its reveal and use of AD, waits for targets to optimally close and absorbs strikes adequately, then USIS may not be able to effectively prosecute SEAD/DEAD strikes to fully degrade AD.

USIS Air Supremacy is only provable with fatal risk to air forces by them entering to deliver non-standoff strikes. Iran could be holding back AD for that scenario, but risks tolerating strikes in the interim.

However, it may not have the AD network and effectiveness Crooke has suggested. Only ongoing combat and USIS range closure will prove this one way or the other.

Impending truth & reality test: Carriers

Iran has officially claimed to have hit a carrier with drones, but no visual proof is available and no USIS confirmation has been given.

Within 24 hours, USS Gerald Ford's naval formation will be in close range of Yemen/Houthi weapons. A consequential test of truth & reality will ensue. Whatever the results, they will be profound.

Yemen has no other targets at present and has declared full engagement in support of Iran. If that's true, two things should happen:

1. Ford should take defensive measures once in range, including appropriate airborne operations, which will impact its subsequent operations against Iran if it significantly expands fuel and ammunition.

2. Yemen must maximally engage the fleet. It has demonstrated adequate capability to strike moving ships and threaten aircraft. If it is genuinely engaged in war, it should be seeking to kill ships and force the fleet to deplete any and all resources while it is in its range. The techniques required to do this effectively with a combination of drones and missiles isn't complicated. Combinations of saturation (swarming) and multi directional attack to overload and split defensive fire, and trigger heavy expenditure of missile and air defence magazines are within Yemen's capabilities.

The fleet must move through the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandab Strait, and the Gulf of Aden. That is inside the range of Shahed and Geran drones, and every anti-ship missile in the known Yemeni arsenal. Yemen has the ability to launch anti ship attacks at ranges up to 900 and possibly 2000 km. The Ford is vulnerable to attack in the Red Sea (now) until well past Yemen. Failure to attack the fleet is an indicator that the Yemen narrative is false.

US Hormuz Insurance Test

Any insured ship is guaranteed to be attacked & hit with any missile/drone by Iran, as already demonstrated at least three times. The same goes for escort ships. Cheap drone swarms (Shahed, Geran) can flood and strike both, while other drones attack in mixed volumes from other directions, and anti ship missiles attack at different speeds and on differing profiles.

Insurance is guaranteed to be claimed, unless “transit under fire” is excluded. 100% claim probability isn’t workable. Insurance that's guaranteed to pay out is unsustainable. It is also useless if the real objective is for ships to get through the Strait adequately intact: being insured neither increases those chances nor reduces damage. Further, suicidal crews are required to perform the journey. Insurance doesn't mitigate that. Escorts face the same risk. If USS Abraham Lincoln provides escort elements and isn't maximally attacked, which should certainly result in critical strikes, there's something wrong with that narrative.

The US claim to provide insurance will be revealed to be a scam: non-existent and utterly meaningless.

Russia: strategic win via gas supply

The EU said it would cut all Russian energy purchases by 2027, helped blow up Nord Stream, and openly labels Russia an active enemy. Hungary and other countries are dependent on Russian energy pipelines.

Since the USIS-Iran War, the EU is now in a self-induced energy suicide pact. Now, Russia has formally brought forward the EU's cut off of Russian energy supplies. It is finding new customers in the east and will cut gas supplies to the EU. This is a major strategic win for Russia against the entirety of the EU and NATO, without any form of combat or kinetic risk.

The UK and EU are the biggest group of dumb, suicidal people on Earth. They cut themselves off from almost all their energy, on purpose, by free choice. 600m people vs ~2000 politicians. All of them in a suicide pact. These humans are collectively stupid. See Covid. This is Darwinism and Dunning Kruger in practise.

PREDICTION: What should be happening by now is the mass uprising of these populations against their governments because the energy supply issue is entirely falsely constructed and is the root cause of all other symptomatic problems facing citizens outside of financial and political system issues and corruption. However, no such uprisings that have any effect will occur because the total control system governing these citizens is far more effective than any one of them understands or admits, even though much of it is opposable with numbers, non-compliance, open contests, and sustained but focused violence, all of which these populations are fully capable of because of the sheer scale of numbers and the uniformity of the root problems. These populations are literally suicidal and will not act in their interests.

Backtest

Here is the list of the predictive claims from VST's last article.

1. The strait of Hormuz should close soon.

Iran made good on its claims to i. effectively close the Strait, though it now states only USIS traffic will be actively denied and traffic is “naturally” stopped; ii. attack USIS maximally, under existential threat.

2. USIS has initiated the war on false pretexts and asserts that the war will conclude in days.

This is multiply correct, proven by sequence of actions and USIS unstable and incredible statements of “reasoning” and justifications. This is laughable. Isis and its vassals demonstrate their intellectual, moral and ethical degeneracy and their citizens tolerate it and variously lap it up. Meanwhile, the war of intensifying, proving again that Trump is a pathological liar.

3. The same propaganda/information warfare profile observed in the Ukraine conflict will be followed in this war (noting that it has already begun).

This is, IMO, correct. Compare the style and content of White House output with that of the Israelis post October 7 and its the same: declarative, false, polarised, intentional, psychopathic and imbecilic. This output is an indictment of the audiences across the USIS hegemony. Then compare it to Western reporting of Ukraine from Feb 2022. It's broadly the same: fabulist propaganda that dissolves after weeks or days.

4. Within two weeks to a month, Iran’s capabilities, willingness, and competence will become clear; if the pattern of the “12 Day War” holds, USIS may deploy a nuclear weapon.

Initial Iranian capabilities are impressive. Half of USIS global THAAD batteries are destroyed. The radars between Iran and Israel are gone. All USIS bases immediately west of Iran have been struck to some extent. USIS reporting blackout/censorship is indicative of heavier than admitted losses. Limited footage from Israel depicts penetration of AD and strikes landing. Iranian citizens appear to still be massing outside while USIS strikes occur, suggesting strike volume and dispersion doesn't preclude these gatherings. Iranian AD capabilities are unclear. Iran is sustaining increased damage and USIS is striking civilian targets and infrastructure, as well as some decoys and indeterminate amounts of legitimate military targets.

I maintain that a tactical nuclear strike is possible, but will explain in another article.

5. Russia, China, and Pakistan are expected to issue formal warnings to all nations against nuclear weapon use to preserve balance of power during the conflict.

This hasn't happened yet.

6. The next month will reveal significant truths to the world about the nature of power and humanity.

Some truths and deep ironies are already apparent, others remain to be seen and tested. I'll save this for next time.