Middle East Meltdown: Prediction Framework 1
This substack is an ongoing live fire exercise
If you think the following is :
“a polemical and speculative interpretation of Middle Eastern events… amounting to conspiratorial conjecture, absent falsifiability or concrete sourcing… oversimplifying state behavior… presenting post hoc rationalization & tendentious interpretation as analytic inevitability… that underestimates soft power constraints and reputational risk calculus… that collapses under critical scrutiny due to lack of methodological discipline and evidentiary basis… that cannot serve as an analytically defensible geopolitical forecast…”
ChatGPT 16/06/25
then stay tuned for an ongoing, live fire test of realist, realpolitik world view and forward integrative speculation constantly tested in the crucible of actual observable, reported facts.
VST will die on its own sword.
Self-inflicted, ritual humiliation, suicide live show.
Are you not entertained?
Middle East events:
form a pre-planned, coordinated, multiparty pincer movement to complete US hegemon full spectrum regional dominance that interrupts multipolarity;
are NOT piecemeal reactive IS/US interplay;
expose political theatre and its power;
are a mirror held up to widescale human cognition;
are temporally, materially, doctrinally and strategically synced;
knowingly involve US, IS, UK, EU COMMISSION & states, TU & ME vassals including Syria;
has no need for legit pretext/legal basis because UN etc cannot act to oppose;
are predicated on “now is the optimal moment” calculations based on “unchecked success” to date in Palestinian genocide and Syrian overthrow;
enabled by fecklessness of any OpFor (mil or political) to act with adequate force against US hegemony including RU/CH et al, which is not solely due to ineptitude but includes strategic behavioural conduct & tolerance;
expose the “competitive advantage” in realpolitik of uni- or multilateral action outside normative frames (UN Charter etc) while others permanently lag via consensus normative behaviour (this is US doctrinal UN conduct);
prove that the true persistent reality of human affairs always orbits around “might makes right” & testing/exercising that might in live crucible;
hinge on OODA loops & PDCA cycle i.e. being “right or legal” isn't what “wins” - being big enough, fast enough & ahead enough is what “wins”. Victory to some is in cycle and speed of actions, not the degree of correctness of a given action (even if functionally, analytically, temporally perfect);
will expose (again) who has actual journalistic & analytical skill & who is just a parrot for any side. Signal in noise will be exposed;
are not the superficial causal/reactive chain of public events - they are the emergent/resultant manifestation of the subsurface reality of transglobal political MICIMATT mass, intent and capability enacted regionally;
will not come down to arsenal size of the ostensible combatants.
If you have read this far, stop and take a step back.
Look at this whole substack again.
State in the comments:
what you think this is
what's coming down this substack pipe?
what's the purpose/function/objective?
If this is a “live fire test”, what's being tested?
Everything you need is in here. This isn't a trick.
We've already told you the answers before.
Stating “this is a competition/test of me” is not the answer. Both of these things are inherently self-evident because you have been presented with 4 direct questions.
No one can control the chaos and your decision making tools (OODA loops and PDCA cycle) cannot anticipate the end of THE CYCLE when the ouroboros swallows its tail. The Euphrates is being dried up and Trump is "working miracles" (6666) to prepare the way. Human "might" and human "justice" will be exposed as puny and inadequate and all the talking heads and propagandists will be exposed. There are no good guys. "For the vision is yet for an appointed time, but at the end it shall speak, and not lie: though it tarry, wait for it; because it will surely come, it will not tarry" (Hab 2:3 ).
I'll try answering the questions.
1. This (if this is current events) is pursuit of ideological and geopolitical goals on the part of long known actors in a world civil war (Ernst Nolte) which had been paused for a long period of time. This (if this is what you are doing with your substack) is an attempt at deconstructing what is being said and reported about what is supposedly happening, with the aim of breaking any spell that those supposed, because reported, facts and their spin might weave on the publics in countries and the public online.
2. What is coming down this substack pipe will be a kind of live commentary to the goings-on or being-reporteds-on as they unfold, with the very interesting service to us of showing us alternative playings-out with their implications. Making us aware of the project-management nature of much that is happening.
3. The purpose would be immunizing the non player characters that we are, against the psychological effects of what may be happening and what in any case is being narrated as happening, as well as against the psychological effects of what is being painted on the wall as imminent. And making us understand already how all of that is very, very old and nothing new under the sun, hence no reason to overly stress ourselves. Break the spell and make us think along to become more empowered, or something like that? (Probably way too idealistic but hey.)
Another very interesting aim could be the following: By analyzing in real time and getting the public on par with developments, thwart the possible plan of tptb of shocking, aweing and manipulating the public into passive reception of whatever they plan with no protest and with no critical reflection. By trying to make things as transparent as possible as fast as possible, breaking any spell and preempting certain psychology-based moves as having no point any more if discussed before they happen.
4. Maybe what is tested is the feedback loops between public and chatbots, and whether if you feed your analysis into the chatbots fast enough, you can outpace actual developments and make them not an option any more for the planners who rely on those chatbots to put out the garbage that was previously put in? (In fact I think all the censoring is less about them not wanting people to utter their opinions, and more about having to ensure that the chatbots, from which npcs take their information and opinions and view of the (presumed) world, are fed with pure narrative, not contaminated by other opinions, because only when pure garbage goes in, will the chatbot deliver pure garbage out with no subversion potential. So it would be a totally pragmatic reason, just of keeping the chatbot input clean. I think that makes it less bad in a way. - And probably, you are in the process of proactively and intentionally sabotaging that process of purifying the text corpus that the chatbots absorb. Polluting that corpus with subversive analysis. - That was my answer.