Middle East Meltdown: Brief food for thought re Iran

ChatGPT links are included if you wish to look below the surface of these statements.

2:13 13/6/25

https://x.com/IggySemz/status/1933331878435496405?t=r2omFtqAQ6yY0dr6Ol70yQ&s=19

CRUNCH TIME

A pivotal moment in global history. Israel-Iran interchange now will determine the course of the future.

How does one win once forced to play?

By engaging on one's own terms. How that's done & by whom is the million dollar question.

Further delay of True Promise 3?

Professor Seyed Marandi has bigged up Iran's will & ability to strike back. Iran preventing USA Israel escalatory retaliation has to be a goal i.e. charting a line that didn't trigger escalation to tactical nukes or bigger while substantively destroying Israel's ability to attack Iran any more and simultaneously forcing the USA to back off. Doing little to nothing has led to this USA-Israel pincer provocation decapitation strike this morning (forced Catch 22?).

The only ones who will hold Israel to account are Iranians. Genocide in Palestine proves almost all the Middle East is cowed, bought & corrupted into USA vassalage & self interest.

Institutional power is non existent.

"Might makes right" remains the law of the jungle.

These circumstances are the direct symptom of two things:

1. USA hegemonic strategic interests being exerted via Israel through both sponsorship & tolerance;

2. Perceived relative impunity & corrupted political, power & ethnoreligious incentives across Israel, USA, EU, UK etc. Common factors being Zionism, Abrahamic faiths, resource control and expansion of harmonic and regional strategic partner power.

An obvious mechanic in play:

• Israel attacks Iran;

• Iran delivers "definitive" response;

• USA declares proof of existential threat intent & capability from Iran;

• USA initiates solo or joint strikes under that pretext, all to achieve what it & Israel has always sought.

“Israeli interest = USA interest” is repeatedly explicitly stated by both administrations/regimes.

Under that mechanic, what's Iran's winning move?

If Iranian air defence was definitive, Israeli strikes wouldn't land. Without definitive AD, Israel has an escalatory prerogative and attack vector. Iranian retaliation that could remove it will breach "USA interest"

Netanyahu's standard insane ethnoreligious script is tired but there is no meaningful, force-based opposition and there is zero institutional containment of USA Israel agendas and actions.

If you can mass murder children while declaring your intent to "destroy everything", you have no limit.

YOU ARE THE ABYSS.

https://chatgpt.com/share/684d985b-6988-8005-875c-69928681645b

18:34

Every single politician, pundit, analyst, commentator & opinion is actively being tested as of the Israeli strike.

ZERO people passed the "predict Syria" test. No one anticipated and called the collapse of the Assad regime. ALMOST ZERO will pass the "how will Israel-Iran pan out?" test.

Most have claimed Iran is a sleeping dragon. How many have said that even if it is, it has allowed itself to be put into a legal, political, military & economic corner?

Trying to exit the corner guarantees massive damage to it & more beyond, giving pretext to its enemies for their maximal retribution via skewed narrative through territories vassalised via hybrid warfare over decades.

If Iran is shown to have failed to build adequate AD networks or refused such from allies (RU/CH) it will likely have committed an existential error á la Assad.

The unpleasant truth must be faced:

WAR IS THE ULTIMATE REALPOLITIK

Force is the fundamental fulcrum of human power.
All else is illusion & luxury that sublimates under adequate pressure. Morality does not factor in to realpolitik exercised through force. Nor does law.
Anyone who does not speak in these terms is lying to themselves. State power is not the aggregation of people power. State behaviour is not the aggregate of nor synonymous with the behaviour of people.

Any pundit who cannot operate on the reality vector of "might makes right" is either in error or consciously lying.

Inventing equivalency reasons for how they want things to be/play out, only for events to not happen like that at all is literal proof of their incapability.

If Iran retaliates:

• inadequately, it will be attacked by both the USA & Israel in open war;

• adequately, it risks nuclear attack by either or both.

USA Israel have declared this to the world & executed all of this plan, hence today Iran has been illegally attacked under a false pretext that involves both the USA and Israel working in self-admitted, unethical union.

No one opposed it effectively despite it being repeatedly declared over decades and multiple times since October 7th, 2024.

Might makes right.

Wishing it was different, opining on moral grounds, saying "no fair, Israel has nukes so Iran should too" is what children do.

Adults deal with reality.
War is a game for adults.

Children play in between stories, arguing which story is best as adults redraw maps with bombs.

https://chatgpt.com/share/684c9dba-7768-8005-b0f5-09bf0a0d5791

20:32

A METHOD FOR COMBATING THE STRATEGY OF TENSION:

Direct, maximal removal of doubt through the sustained application of multifactoral force. If one cannot or will not exercise that option, one has been beaten by an enemy whom one did not truly know or understand, having never adequately tested oneself against them.

What form & duration that direct, oppositional force takes hinges on one's prepared intentional means to act & therefore sustain it & endure.

If one faces genuine existential threat, nothing can be off limits.

If combat proxies & allies share that belief they should be mobilized maximally in support.

If Axis of Resistance forces do not act maximally against their singular, existential enemy, then one must question what the real truth is?

• No effective Resistance able to intentionally fight to win?

• "Existential threat" isn't real enough?

• Someone's a paper tiger (see Syrian axis)?

• A given strategy & will has proven to dominate enough to placate/nullify 2.4bn Muslims with >10m OpFor?

• Gross strategic error?

https://chatgpt.com/share/684c8162-9194-8005-a9c6-575560555d7f

21:17

AIR POWER

If Iran's response does not effectively, specifically target all Israeli airfields including civil, it is not adequately defending itself.

Runways must be nullified ahead of individual aircraft. Failure to do this now is guaranteed failure, faulty tactics & analysis.

Iran has woeful air power by modern standards. Strategically & tactically it cannot allow air threats to operate in range of its borders.

It must destroy every surrounding runway.

If it does not, it betrays physical or analytical military weakness and will pay dearly.

It likely has porous air defence irrespective of the best components of it (S300 and possibly 400). It cannot depend on critical max AD performance. It must defeat/diminish air power threats at source maximally to create capacity & endurance on an ongoing basis.

If Israel projects air threat using non stealth F15/16s + drones, the volume of jets + ordnance (6-8 weapons per jet) could saturate the Iranian AD network, before the F35s arrive.

Iran must constantly suppress Israeli & US air power at source via any means including targeting tanking in other nations.

Properly testing the F35 against any OPFOR AD & losing (especially vs older/low end AD) is a huge strategic blow to the US/IS military economy agenda.

Iran can maximize those odds via all of the above.

Now war has begun, mercy must evaporate. The only way to win is unrelenting will & arms to dominate.

https://chatgpt.com/share/684c9632-ee48-8005-8671-6b5f3b436df6